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29

Jul 2026

美联储决议临近，油价飙升推高加息概率，美元波动再起

美联储今晚决议成市场引爆点：按兵不动仍主流，但油价冲破90美元推高加息概率至近30%。美元、欧元/美元与衍生品波动料放大。关注期权对冲策略。

29

Jul 2026

德国商业银行认为瑞士通胀温和，瑞士央行料维持利率不变，支持欧元兑瑞郎中期上行走势

瑞士通胀回升不及预期，瑞银或按兵至2027，欧瑞利差长期存在。抓紧机会：布局EUR/CHF看涨期权与套息互换，逢回调吸纳，博瑞郎走弱。

29

Jul 2026

中东局势紧张推高油价与债券收益率，澳洲CPI拖累澳元，美联储决议临近

中东冲突升温推油价反弹、欧美债息止跌；美元分化。澳洲通胀偏软打压澳元，市场降加息预期。FOMC前仍偏鹰。策略：押WTI、买美债、做空澳元、布局黄金看涨。

29

Jul 2026

S$NEER 接近政策上限，提高金管局（MAS）干预概率，限制新元上行并支撑美元/新元（USD/SGD）期权

UOB 模型指 S$NEER 处政策区间上沿附近，高于中点 1.68%，料维持 1.40%-1.90%，USD/SGD 1.2898-1.2963。MAS 或干预抑制 SGD，策略：逢低买短期 USD/SGD 看涨期权。

29

Jul 2026

NIFTY 关注斐波那契支撑区，艾略特波浪回调酝酿看涨反转

NIFTY五浪后现三浪回撤，跌势逼近斐波等幅支撑23,641.9–23,192.3，或酝酿反转再冲新高。宏观强劲，建议牛市价差/写Put，严设止损。

29

Jul 2026

日本GPIF在波动性上升、国内配置呼声升温之际，委任主动型日债管理人

日本GPIF五年来首聘主动型日债管理人，锁定三家机构应对JGB震荡；在通胀与BOJ紧缩下力争跑赢基准，同时扩展风险资产多元配置。

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