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31

Jul 2026

7月轮动重挫亚洲，欧洲守住高位；期权资金转向美国科技股与原油

7月全球股市急轮动，亚洲领跌、欧洲更韧，美科反弹守住关键均线。8月策略：美科牛市价差，欧洲买保护性看跌；财报季用跨式捕捉波动，并布局能源看涨。

31

Jul 2026

美联储、英伦银行与日本央行维持利率不变，但警示能源、日元与AI需求带来的通胀风险

三大央行按兵不动却集体转鹰：投票分歧、指引暗示通胀再起（能源、地缘、货币、AI）。市场或重定价：做空SOFR，买USD/JPY看跌，增配原油看涨，布局曲线趋平。

31

Jul 2026

疑似日本干预下美元/日元剧烈震荡，日银转鹰提振日元支撑

美元/日元疑遭日方两度干预急挫至158区，161成防线。日央行偏鹰、或加速迈向中性利率，9月加息概率升至40%。建议买短Put与偏空价差、日历价差押注日元走强。

31

Jul 2026

英镑走软，因市场下调英伦银行9月加息概率且中东紧张局势推升美元

英镑失守1.3450！英银9月加息概率由60%砍至30%，GBP/USD承压；中东冲突推油价与美元避险。策略：短期做空英镑、买美元call并布局波动率。

31

Jul 2026

欧元跌破1.1500，因中东紧张局势及市场押注美联储鹰派立场推动美元反弹

美元空头回补拖累欧元跌破1.1500；中东紧张+美联储偏鹰撑美元。9月加息概率66%，波动或放大20%。关注密大数据，布局欧元/黄金期权与利率期货。

31

Jul 2026

中国7月CFLP综合PMI跌破50，人民币与股市承压

中国7月综合PMI跌至49.3、制造业与非制造业齐陷收缩，增长警报拉响。政策承诺“增量”稳增长，但落地有时滞；人民币偏弱、股指承压、利率低位，衍生品对冲升温。

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