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5

Sep 2026

随着沃勒言论影响消退及美国非农就业回暖重燃美联储加息押注，金价剧烈震荡

黄金冲高后急转直下！沃勒鸽派令加息概率降温，但非农16.2万远超预期，美元与短端收益率反弹，金价回落至4427美元，贵金属或下探4100。

5

Sep 2026

巴西8月贸易顺差高于预期，为雷亚尔短期走强及衍生品交易策略提供支撑

巴西8月贸易顺差73.9亿美元超预期，出口韧性凸显；或即时支撑雷亚尔。交易者可关注做空USD/BRL、买入BRL与EWZ看涨期权，抢先布局潜在升值与反弹。

5

Sep 2026

贝克休斯：美国石油钻井平台数量小幅增至449座，发出国内产量稳定信号

美国石油钻机449座，周增2座但仍低于去年末与2023均值，供给约束未改。WTI或先横盘，策略偏买略虚值看涨或牛市价差，关注库存去化催化突破。

5

Sep 2026

北欧联合银行预计欧元区通胀水平将持续高于欧洲央行目标直至2027年，加息仍是市场焦点

Nordea警告：欧元区通胀最快2027春才跌破2%，核心或高于2%至2028；ECB偏鹰、加息风险未除。策略：空Euribor、买欧元看涨、配Euro Stoxx 50看跌。

5

Sep 2026

克利夫兰联储哈马克称政策并不具限制性，并警示若通胀仍高于3%利率或将维持在更高水平

美联储哈马克放鹰：政策不够紧、通胀仍超3%，升息或重回桌面！FedWatch升息概率飙至35%。交易员宜对冲短端收益率上行，布局SOFR期权与波动率策略。

5

Sep 2026

土耳其央行流动性正常化推动TLREF回归政策利率，市场计入年底前降息预期

土央行回购拍卖促流动性常态化，TLREF回落贴近37%政策利率。ING料9月按兵不动，Q4两次降息至35%。交易策略：布局IRS收固定、TRY曲线下移，外汇期权加尾部保护。

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