Live Updates

26

Aug 2026

贝森特表态后美债收益率下滑：油价走低、美元走软，PCE数据与国债拍卖及沃什讲话前市场趋于谨慎

贝森特干预叠加油价回落推动美债长端收益率下行、波动率收敛并利好风险资产；聚焦PCE、7年期拍卖与沃什讲话，策略建议做空利率波动、配置DXY看跌、欧元与澳元多头及CNH渐进走强。

26

Aug 2026

澳元兑日元走强，7月通胀高于预期提振市场对澳洲联储9月加息押注

澳元兑日元受澳洲7月通胀超预期提振上行，RBA 9月加息定价升至32%；技术面偏强但临近114.66-114.93阻力，期权策略可捕捉动能并对冲BoJ风险。

26

Aug 2026

华尔街股指期货小幅走低，PCE物价指数、英伟达财报及沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话逼近

财报与PCE双重催化来袭：美股期指震荡收敛、科技领涨延续。关注杰克逊霍尔利率指引，建议跨式、铁鹰及板块轮动价差对冲波动与方向风险。

26

Aug 2026

华尔街股指期货小幅走低，PCE数据、英伟达财报及沃什在杰克逊霍尔年会的讲话临近

欧美时段美股期指窄幅震荡，市场静待PCE与英伟达财报及杰克逊霍尔讲话；科技领涨后波动或放大。建议跨式、认沽对冲，铁鹰及相对价值价差布局。

26

Aug 2026

受伊朗局势降温消息削弱风险溢价影响，布伦特原油大跌，势将创6月以来最大单周跌幅

伊朗局势缓和与停火预期升温，布伦特回吐13%涨幅逾半、周跌或创6月以来最大；霍尔木兹通道框架提振风险偏好，波动率溢价料回落并利好股债。

26

Aug 2026

日元走强，市场计入日本央行9月加息预期；美国PCE数据公布前美元走弱

日元走强令美元/日元回落至159附近。路透调查显示57%经济学家押注日本央行9月加息25bp至1.25%；美元静待7月PCE通胀指引。

26

Aug 2026

英伟达财报发布在即，市场小幅走高；期权定价显示业绩超预期后市场反应或趋于温和

英伟达财报引发波动率预期升温，但市场对超预期敏感度下降；半导体回撤加剧。建议避贵价裸Call，转向指数期权信用利差/铁鹰，并以保护性Put对冲季节性回调。

26

Aug 2026

澳元因强劲CPI走高，市场上调澳洲联储加息概率；美国PCE数据待公布

澳元受7月CPI超预期提振，AUD/USD升至0.7180；市场上调RBA 9月再加息隐含概率至36%。聚焦美国PCE，若低于预期或助突破0.7201。

26

Aug 2026

亚洲风险情绪走强，澳大利亚通胀回升推升澳洲联储加息概率；关于霍尔木兹海峡谈判的报道令油价回落

亚洲风险偏好回暖但澳洲CPI超预期抬升紧缩定价，ASX落后；油价与美债收益率回落。焦点转向央行决议、PCE、英伟达财报与杰克逊霍尔。

26

Aug 2026

美国PCE数据公布前，受回购与利率押注变化影响，美元指数小幅走高，逼近99

DXY回升至99关口静待7月PCE；美债超40万亿、回购上调及伊朗二级制裁扰动预期，FedWatch押注降至38.4%。技术偏弱，短端期权跨式与看跌价差布局波动。

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