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13

Oct 2026

标普500牛市临近第五年，AI主导的上涨行情考验市场广度与估值水平

标普500牛市步入第四年累涨117%创纪录，若延续至第五年历史均值仍有21%上行。但AI驱动估值高度集中、市场广度恶化，需期权对冲尾部风险。

13

Oct 2026

美元走强及油价飙升推动美元兑日元升向159，财政担忧打击日元

美元/日元逼近159关口：美元走强叠加油价上行与日本财政忧虑压制日元；RSI近70提示过热。策略宜谨慎偏多、逢回调布局，并以期权对冲干预尾部风险。

13

Oct 2026

布伦特原油因霍尔木兹海峡遇袭反弹，油价波动推升美元指数，欧元与日元承压

布伦特原油受俄乌能源设施停火预期扰动先跌破103美元，后因霍尔木兹海峡VLCC事件反弹至107美元上方；油价上行压制欧元日元，驱动美元指数续强。

13

Oct 2026

英镑走软，地缘政治紧张局势推升能源价格；市场对英国央行加息押注仍处高位

英镑/美元交投清淡回落0.11%至1.3217，地缘风险与能源扰动主导。BoE鹰派推升加息预期：11月加息概率约90%，利率或升至4.75%；关注CPI/PPI与阻力位。

13

Oct 2026

美元/瑞郎走高，美元在美国通胀数据公布前保持坚挺，美联储与瑞士央行利差扩大

USD/CHF周初跳空上行至0.8333，美元走强叠加美联储-SNB利差扩张压制瑞郎。关键催化在美CPI、PPI；技术面多头占优，关注0.8383阻力与0.8200/0.8100支撑。

13

Oct 2026

欧元/美元走弱，法国财政担忧与美元走强抑制涨幅，市场静待美国通胀数据公布

警惕欧元/美元再度承压：法国财政政治不确定性与美指强势共振，汇价自1.1217回落至1.1178；关注美通胀数据、利差走阔及期权波动率对冲机会。

13

Oct 2026

欧元/美元跌至2026年新低，美元走强；市场静待美国CPI为美联储政策前景提供指引

欧元/美元触及2026年新低，美元走强及油价上行压制风险偏好。市场聚焦美国CPI与美联储政策预期；技术面偏空，关注1.1130/1.1100支撑及1.1215阻力。

13

Oct 2026

俄罗斯8月外贸规模降至117.39亿美元，显示对外收支平衡趋弱

警惕外贸“变盘”：俄罗斯8月对外贸易规模降至117.39亿美元，环比下滑13.6%，顺差收窄、净出口走弱，或推升大宗商品与外汇期权隐含波动率。

13

Oct 2026

欧元/美元走低，法国预算案投票临近；利差扩大与美国CPI成市场焦点

法国预算案辩论触发政局“压力测试”，欧美受益率利差走阔压制，关注1.1100/1.1050；美CPI与财报季左右金价4130及美股高位震荡。

13

Oct 2026

受中东局势紧张及油价走高提振美元需求影响，纽元/美元徘徊于17个月低位附近

中东地缘风险推升避险与油价，NZD/USD跌至0.5600并贴近17个月低位。美元韧性延续，关注RBNZ表态；失守0.5580恐下探0.5540。

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