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Live Updates

25

Mar 2026

中国人民银行将美元/人民币中间价设在6.8911，前值为6.8943，预测为6.8819

突发信号：人民银行将中间价调强至6.8911，明显强于预期，警告做空并力挺人民币；在美联储高利率与中国宽松分化下，汇率管理与稳增长拉扯或放大期权波动。

25

Mar 2026

在CPI数据较预期温和后，澳元/美元维持在0.7000附近，亚洲时段延续横盘整理

澳元兑美元守0.7000：澳洲通胀回落但RBA偏鹰支撑，美元因停火消息走弱。隐波或偏低，宜跨式捕捉波动；利差收窄、套息降温，澳元偏压。

25

Mar 2026

日本央行委员称，若预测成真，进一步加息是合适之举——据1月会议纪要

日银纪要释信号：实际利率仍低，若经济与物价达标将续加息；但忧压消费与金融。多数主张逐次会议决策，日元偏弱或受宽松影响。

25

Mar 2026

芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，能源冲击威胁物价稳定与就业，恐危及央行使命

能源冲击令美联储陷“双目标”两难：通胀或再抬头、就业恐转弱。古尔斯比称降息看战事与通胀。市场6月降息概率跌破20%，美元获撑，波动升温。

25

Mar 2026

特朗普寻求与伊朗达成协议以缓解中东紧张局势，但整体成功前景仍然渺茫

特朗普寻求与伊朗达成停火协议，伊朗更愿与副总统万斯对话。美国开出“去核+开放霍尔木兹”等硬条件。市场面临二选一：油价、VIX与避险货币或剧烈波动。

25

Mar 2026

巴尔称，通胀仍高于目标且中东风险加剧，利率或将维持不变一段时间

巴尔暗示美联储或先按兵不动：通胀仍高于2%，中东冲突推升油价风险，就业趋稳但初请偏高。市场押2026降息，利率、股市与美元期权交易机会浮现。

25

Mar 2026

CPI数据公布前，英镑/美元徘徊在1.3420附近，在1.3250–1.3480区间剧烈波动后仍守住周度涨幅

英镑/美元升破1.34后守稳1.3360，市场聚焦周三英国2月CPI与英央行通胀判断。短线看1.3450阻力、1.3400支撑，数据或引爆波动。

25

Mar 2026

美元/瑞郎上涨0.24%，紧张局势持续；从0.7859低位反弹后，目前交投于0.7881附近

USD/CHF地缘风险中反弹至0.7881，偏多但仍压在200日线下。关注0.7893突破看0.7950/0.8000；跌破0.7834恐回测0.7798。央行分歧与美元净多头升温成关键催化。

25

Mar 2026

中东紧张局势持续之际，黄金在亚洲攀升至接近4,470美元，摆脱波动的四个月低点

金价剧震后反弹至4,470美元：美伊冲突与谈判消息拉扯避险需求；油价高企推升收益率、压制不生息黄金。交易者关注长跨式及熊市看涨价差对冲波动风险。

25

Mar 2026

澳元/美元周线守在0.7000附近，此前在0.7120至0.6910区间剧烈波动，静待CPI数据

AUD/USD 围绕0.7000震荡，焦点转向周三澳洲2月CPI。若通胀超预期，RBA 5月加息押注升温，或推升澳元；否则美元避险需求主导。技术阻力0.7033、支撑0.6965。

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