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3

Jul 2026

欧元区通胀走软与美联储“更久维持高利率”倾向形成对比，欧元/美元震荡下行

欧元区通胀回落、加息预期降温压制欧元；美国就业分化仍支撑美元与“更高更久”。欧元/美元下探风险升温，关注拉加德表态与跨式期权机会。

3

Jul 2026

新西兰消费者信心6月回升，考验市场对新西兰联储降息预期并提振纽元前景

新西兰6月ANZ–Roy Morgan消费者信心升至91.3，虽仍低于100但环比修复，或强化RBNZ鹰派立场、压制降息预期，纽元及消费相关资产迎布局窗口。

3

Jul 2026

中国允许人民币对北亚货币升值以抑制芯片进口成本，削弱“低估”指控

人民币年内名义走强，尤其兑韩元升近11%，与半导体进口激增相关。通胀低迷限制REER，但名义升值削弱“低估”指控。策略建议短多CNH/JPY、CNH/KRW并远期买入看跌对冲政策反转风险。

3

Jul 2026

纽约梅隆银行表示，人民币走强遏制低估指控；中国加大从东北亚进口半导体力度

纽约梅隆称，人民币名义走强压缩“低估”指控空间，并被用作政策工具降低北亚半导体进口成本；关注NA-3顺差错配支撑及国产替代推进引发的潜在汇率反转交易窗口。

3

Jul 2026

美国就业数据疲弱拖累美元，墨西哥比索走强；《美墨加协定》（USMCA）审查不确定性犹存

美国非农爆冷叠加日元干预传闻压低美元，墨西哥比索走强，USD/MXN跌至17.48；但USMCA续期不确定与9月加息定价偏高，波动或放大。

3

Jul 2026

泰国经常账户转为逆差，泰铢对油价与美联储风险敞口加大

泰国经常账户因进口激增转负，外部压力叠加油价与美联储预期升温；外储与外债仍稳但逆风加剧，USD/THB或上探37.50，宜强化对冲。

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