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3

Jul 2026

欧元/日元反弹但仍受制于成交量加权平均价下方，三角形整理形态预示突破在即

欧元/日元184.50反弹但仍受VWAP与EMA压制，短线偏空；对称三角形逼近突破，关键185.90/183.50。欧央行降息预期降温或助上破，失守则看181.87。

3

Jul 2026

在疲软的美国就业数据削弱美联储前景之际，美元兑加元下挫并趋向录得周度跌幅，油价走强提振加元

爆冷！疲弱非农令美联储转鸽预期升温、美元承压；油价反弹与地缘风险支撑加元，USD/CAD 回落逼近五周首度周跌，期权策略偏空与跨式并行。

3

Jul 2026

纽元/美元在0.5705附近企稳，中国服务业走强抵消美国非农就业数据走软及假期休市影响

独立日休市叠加美非农显著低于预期压制美元，NZD/USD升至0.5705；中国服务业PMI维持强扩张与出口回暖助推纽元，RBNZ加息预期后移但利差仍偏多。

3

Jul 2026

由于美国就业数据疲软削弱美联储加息预期、且中国PMI提振澳元，澳元/美元走高

AUD/USD 受美元抛压续涨至0.6930，中国服务业PMI韧性支撑澳元；美国非农疲弱致美联储加息预期塌陷。关注霍尔木兹风险与0.7050阻力，建议0.70看涨期权控风险。

3

Jul 2026

中国服务业PMI回落但仍处于扩张区间，澳元尽管面临技术性阻力仍维持涨幅

中国服务业PMI仍处扩张区间、服务出口加速，强化对澳元基本面支撑；但澳元/美元受均线压制、RSI偏弱。关注0.6975阻力与0.6847支撑，期权对冲波动。

3

Jul 2026

中国人民银行将美元/人民币中间价定得更强、低于市场预期，释放在增长放缓背景下维持人民币有序偏强信号

中间价报6.8047强于前日但弱于市场估值，释放控节奏、抑制人民币过快升值信号；经济与出口偏弱下或维稳偏弱，波动率策略受益。

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