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3

Jul 2026

疲软的美国就业数据推动英镑反弹，但英国政局限制涨幅；英国央行成市场焦点

非农爆冷拖累美元，GBP/USD守住1.3200反弹，回测1.3350-1.3400均线带。英政局与财政疑虑压制风险偏好，短线或维持1.3200-1.3400区间震荡。

3

Jul 2026

日元反弹：美国非农就业数据疲软打压美元，东京干预风险上升，美元/日元下行风险加剧

日元自四十年低位反弹，非农不及预期削弱美元并抬升东京突袭干预风险，美元/日元或录八周首周跌；利差支撑减弱，期权布局看破160。

3

Jul 2026

经合组织警告韩国过度依赖科技周期且波动性加剧，亚洲半导体股走低

韩日台半导体股抛压加剧，科技指数回落。OECD警示韩国出口高度依赖芯片，放大科技周期与财政波动风险；建议财政托底、推进整固及税改，并以期权对冲。

3

Jul 2026

阿根廷6月税收收入下滑，引发对财政目标达成与比索承压的担忧

阿根廷6月税收收入环比降至20,0170亿，财政资金流入转弱；叠加CDS利差超1500bp与大豆价格下跌，贬值与股市回撤风险上行，期权对冲需求升温。

3

Jul 2026

法兴银行预计《美墨加协定》（USMCA）重新谈判将长期化，年度审查机制将持续对原产地规则及中国成分施压

法兴银行预计USMCA不致到期失效，将转入更漫长年度审查谈判；华盛顿借原产地规则与“涉华”供应链施压，或加剧汇率波动，但一体化与两党支持指向最终妥协。

3

Jul 2026

美元指数企稳，疲软的美国非农就业数据令市场对美联储政策预期转向；欧元与黄金走强

非农骤降与前值下修触发降息预期再定价，DXY承压至100.90；欧元、黄金受益走强，日元显著反弹但干预风险犹存，油价谨慎。

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