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1

Jul 2026

欧洲央行德马尔科警示：或暂停加息至下次预测发布，欧元兑美元走软

德马尔科称欧央行或待新预测再议收紧，二轮效应与薪资压力不足、预期未脱锚；通胀与油价回落促“暂停”预期升温，欧元走弱，关注短端与波动率机会。

1

Jul 2026

英镑兑美元回落，GBP/USD在1.3300关口承压徘徊，市场静待贝利与沃什发表讲话

英镑兑美元自1.3275回撤至1.3235，受斐波阻力与200期均线压制。英国通胀降温增添政策不确定，静待英美央行官员讲话引爆波动。

1

Jul 2026

印尼6月CPI超预期引发加息押注升温，提振印尼盾前景并施压债券市场

印尼6月CPI环比0.44%超预期，通胀动能偏强重塑政策定价：印尼央行或更鹰派，印尼盾阶段性获支撑，债券收益率上行，股市承压需防御。

1

Jul 2026

澳大利亚5月建筑许可增速放缓，考验住房市场动能及澳洲联储利率前景

澳洲5月建筑许可同比增速降至5.3%，管线动能趋弱，或拖累GDP与就业并促RBA转鸽；建议减配地产建材，布局看跌期权及做空澳元。

1

Jul 2026

澳大利亚5月建筑许可下降，令澳洲联储政策前景及澳元承压

澳大利亚5月建筑许可环比降1.1%逆预期，指向高利率抑制需求、在建项目储备走弱；市场或提前计价RBA转鸽，澳元及ASX200承压，波动率抬升。

1

Jul 2026

美元/日元在收益率利差扩大拖累下升至162.70附近的数十年高位，干预风险仍存

美元兑日元连创新高至162.70，利差扩张驱动套息交易；干预风险难改中期上行。美就业数据与Fed预期偏鹰或推升至163，上行期权波动率走阔。

1

Jul 2026

在PMI疲弱令人民币承压之际，中国人民银行将美元兑人民币中间价定得更坚挺，且高于路透预测值

人民币中间价报6.8067虽偏强但仍弱于预期，叠加制造业PMI跌破荣枯线与中美利差压力，央行释放稳增长偏弱汇率信号；关注USD/CNH看涨期权及工业金属下行对冲。

1

Jul 2026

日本央行短观数据超预期，强化市场对央行收紧政策的押注，提振日元前景

日本央行短观大型制造业DI二季度升至22，显著超预期，强化工业景气基线并推升政策正常化概率；关注日元走强、JGB收益率上行及股市期权对冲策略。

1

Jul 2026

亚洲货币有望择机反弹，美元升势减弱；数据走软背景下印尼盾料领跑

美元动能或衰减，亚洲货币迎结构性反弹窗口。油价受控缓释外部收支与通胀压力，印尼盾或相对跑赢；可借USD/IDR看跌期权或IDR/USD价差期权布局。

1

Jul 2026

黄金在4,015美元附近企稳，因多哈美伊会谈不确定性叠加美国关键就业数据影响

金价在4,015美元附近横盘，受美伊多哈磋商不确定性支撑；ADP与非农或强化美联储“更久更高”预期、推升美元并压制黄金，期权对冲成关键。

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