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Live Updates

7

Jul 2026

德国商业银行预测新西兰联储或于7月加息，新西兰元走势支撑取决于前瞻指引

德国商业银行押注RBNZ 7月或加息，70%概率支撑纽元；但市场已计入未来一年3.5次加息，空间受限。若经济走弱触发重新定价，纽元中期承压。

7

Jul 2026

日元小幅走高，美元走软推动美元/日元跌破162关口，干预担忧缓和

美元走软带动日元小幅反弹，美元/日元回落至162下方缓解干预忧虑；然美日利差与套息交易仍主导，FOMC纪要成关键催化，期权宜限风险。

7

Jul 2026

沃什首次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要或令鹰派市场情绪承压，美联储转向更为低调的沟通策略

重磅前瞻：6月FOMC纪要遇新主席“极简沟通”，Fedspeak缺位或放大冲击。若纪要未验证市场鹰派定价，利率与风险资产或剧烈再定价，关注2年期美债。

7

Jul 2026

英镑小幅回落，美元走强；英镑/美元在美联储会议纪要公布前守住20日指数移动平均线以上

英镑兑美元回落至1.3380，美元指数走强至100.90；FOMC纪要前风险偏好谨慎。英国政局过渡与CPI回升支撑英镑，技术面维持20日EMA上方，期权看涨瞄准1.3526。

7

Jul 2026

瑞士央行6月外汇储备跃升至7590亿瑞郎，暗示重启卖出瑞郎干预

瑞士6月外储升至7,590亿瑞郎，单月增480亿，暗示SNB抛瑞郎抑制升值、稳通胀。料干预延续并压低波动，做空波动但需控风险。

7

Jul 2026

欧元兑英镑跌至一年低点，市场对欧洲央行暂停加息的押注盖过德国工业产出回升影响

强德国产出难挽欧元颓势，EUR/GBP徘徊0.8540一年低位。通胀偏软令市场押注ECB或按兵不动，政策分化支撑英镑，关注0.8500/0.8490下破。

7

Jul 2026

美元/日元自162.42高点回落，UOB预计汇价将在160.60–163.00区间内整理

美元/日元冲高162.42后回落，UOB称超买动能衰竭，短线转入区间震荡。关注160.60支撑与163.00阻力；美降温、日鸽派及干预风险或压制上行，期权宜布局区间收权利金。

7

Jul 2026

德国5月工业产出转正，提振DAX指数及欧元看涨押注

德国5月工业产出同比由-0.5%转0.1%“破冰”转正，释放欧元区触底信号。建议偏多DAX及欧元、偏空Bund，期权布局把握收益率上行与权益修复。

7

Jul 2026

欧元/美元或于夏季维持区间震荡，欧央行与美联储按兵不动，秋季上行风险逐步累积

EUR/USD夏季或延续1.1350–1.1450低波动区间，1个月隐含波动率降至5.4%；ECB与Fed维持观望压制趋势。德国订单回暖，秋季上破概率升，宜转配中远期欧元看涨策略。

7

Jul 2026

英镑延续九连涨，疲软美国数据削弱美联储加息押注

英镑/美元连涨逼近1.3400！美国就业走弱与油价下行压低通胀预期，市场下调美联储加息定价；英央行高核心通胀强化政策分化，汇价偏多。

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