Live Updates

8

Jul 2026

美国财政部在霍尔木兹海峡遇袭后撤销伊朗原油豁免，推动布伦特和WTI原油上涨5%

美财政部撤销伊朗原油通用许可证并设7月17日回转期限，叠加霍尔木兹袭击引发风险溢价回归；布伦特、WTI跳涨5%，市场押注供应收紧与波动率上行。

8

Jul 2026

欧元/美元走低，霍尔木兹局势紧张推升美元，市场聚焦欧洲央行政策押注与美联储会议纪要

霍尔木兹风险事件推升油价与避险美元，欧元/美元冲高回落收创逾一周低位；市场聚焦FOMC纪要再定价，期权端建议配置下行保护。

8

Jul 2026

英镑/日元自多年高点回落，日元走强及干预担忧抑制多头动能

GBP/JPY冲高217.22后回落至216.51，疑似假突破，或回测216.00。日本干预预期推升隐波至13.5%，建议以期权价差/买入看跌控险博弈。

8

Jul 2026

在新西兰联储利率决议前，纽元兑美元小幅下行；美联储谨慎立场支撑美元

RBNZ 决议前 NZD/USD 回撤至 0.5680，市场计价 OCR 或上调 25bp 且分歧加剧，隐波升至 14.5%。美元韧性压制反弹，期权优选买入看跌或跨式捕捉事件波动。

8

Jul 2026

英镑涨势受阻，霍尔木兹袭击事件推升美元需求，市场焦点转向美联储会议纪要

霍尔木兹遇袭触发risk-off，英镑兑美元九连涨终止并回落至1.3356。美元避险回流、VIX飙升，叠加FOMC纪要与初请风险，或下探1.3300/1.3250。

8

Jul 2026

美元/新加坡元持稳于1.2924附近，下行动能测试支撑，1.2955阻力位限制上行空间

USD/SGD收于1.2924近乎持平，短线动能转弱、区间1.2900–1.2935。1–3周下破1.2890概率抬升、支撑1.2875，阻力1.2955；建议卖虚值看涨、配置看跌对冲。

7

Jul 2026

在霍尔木兹紧张局势提振美元之际，美元/加元上探1.4210，但美联储偏鸽预期限制涨幅

霍尔木兹紧张推升避险买盘，美元/加元三连阳至1.4210；但美就业走弱强化“今夏不加息”定价，油价近70美元支撑加元，建议布局8-9月看跌期权。

7

Jul 2026

在霍尔木兹紧张局势提振美元之际，美元/加元升破1.4200；美联储宽松押注降温及油价走强限制涨幅

霍尔木兹海峡紧张抬升美元避险溢价，美元/加元升至1.4210；但美国就业走弱压制加息预期、油价回落支撑加元，建议期权宽跨式捕捉波动。

7

Jul 2026

帕内塔警告霍尔木兹海峡供应风险或将持续推升欧元区通胀，限制欧洲央行降息空间

帕内塔警示霍尔木兹海峡不确定性推升欧元区通胀上行风险，供给冲击频发致滞胀压力加剧；市场定价偏鸽，建议增配能源及利率、波动率期权策略。

7

Jul 2026

英镑走强，英国通胀企稳；英镑/美元瞄准1.3410，1.3445在望

英镑兑美元反弹收涨0.29%至1.3391，通胀稳固与美非农走弱提振，短线看向1.3410/1.3445；守住1.3350-1.3370，跌破1.3300终结多头。

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