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Live Updates

8

Jul 2026

6月美联储会议后亚洲货币走弱，国内政策分化主导印尼盾、马来西亚林吉特、泰铢和菲律宾比索走势

美元与美债收益率高企压制亚洲货币，市场计价美联储最迟10月再加息；后续将转向国别分化：印尼对冲贬值、令吉押波动、泰铢偏空、比索凭紧缩更韧性。

8

Jul 2026

美国与伊朗紧张局势推升油价，欧洲股市下挫；苹果—博通交易提振科技股稳定走势

美伊冲突风险推升油价与波动率，欧股抛售、DAX回吐涨幅；建议航空运输买入看跌期权、卖出EuroStoxx50虚值看涨价差，战术做多纳指做空道指，增持QQQ看涨期权博反弹。

8

Jul 2026

在美伊紧张局势推升美元与油价、强化市场对美联储收紧政策押注之际，金价走低

美伊摩擦重燃推升油价美元，通胀预期抬头令市场上调美联储加息定价，美债收益率走高，金价回落至4040美元，4,000关口或引发连锁抛压。

8

Jul 2026

英镑小幅走高，中东紧张局势推升油价，令英国央行利率前景更趋复杂

中东局势升级推升油价与美元避险，GBP/USD逆势微涨；布油两日飙升抬升隐含波动，交易员偏好跨式/领口对冲，英央行降息预期受抑支撑英镑。

8

Jul 2026

英镑走强，霍尔木兹紧张局势推升油价与美元，市场焦点转向美联储会议纪要

霍尔木兹冲突升级推升WTI近5%并抬升VIX至22.5，美元指数走强。市场聚焦FOMC纪要与加息预期，英政不确定性压制英镑，期权对冲需求升温。

8

Jul 2026

受伊朗紧张局势及美联储会议纪要公布前加息预期升温影响，美元指数小幅走高

霍尔木兹风险推升油价与通胀再定价，DXY创阶段新高；FedWatch显示加息预期升温，FOMC纪要或偏鹰，期权布局美元上行并警惕地缘降温反转。

8

Jul 2026

日元贬值逼近1986年水平，受油价上涨及美日利差扩大推动美元/日元走高

日元跌势延续，USD/JPY升破171.50创1986年来新高；地缘政治推升油价恶化贸易条件，美日利差扩大与投机净空头逼近极值，或再探数十年低位。

8

Jul 2026

新西兰联储将官方现金利率上调至2.50%，并暗示仍将进一步加息，纽元前景趋稳

新西兰联储加息25基点至2.50%并偏鹰指引，强调通胀粘性且时点不确定；决议一致提振OIS加息定价与纽元，NZD/USD年末看0.59。

8

Jul 2026

英镑在支撑位企稳，市场对英国央行加息押注升温，收益率利差与技术面聚焦1.36水平

英镑兑美元微跌0.1%，但英央行鹰派预期重定价、英美利差走阔及政局情绪改善支撑韧性；技术阻力在1.34，区间1.3300-1.3400，上看1.36。

8

Jul 2026

预计印度6月CPI同比为4.1%，尽管WPI与CPI走势分化，印度央行仍维持既定政策路径

印度6月CPI料回升至4.1%仍处RBI舒适区，食品能源与服务推升、核心温和；WPI高企传导滞后。利率稳、波动率低，偏向短端稳定、卖权及做多USD/INR。

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