Live Updates

9

Jul 2026

日元走弱，美元兑日元逼近164.50，干预风险与期权波动率上升

日元贬值逼近财务省“痛阈”，美元/日元冲高至163.5—164.5引爆干预预期；仓位极度拥挤、隐波升至12.5%，建议以看跌价差对冲突发急挫风险。

9

Jul 2026

在避险情绪升温及瑞士央行偏鹰立场支撑瑞郎的背景下，美元/瑞郎自五日高位回落

USD/CHF假突破0.8100后回落至0.8078，地缘风险抑制风险偏好；RSI动能衰减。上看0.8108/0.8120/0.8200；失守0.8000或下探0.7934、0.7915，SNB控通胀支撑瑞郎。

9

Jul 2026

美联储会议纪要公布后美元指数窄幅震荡，油价攀升，日元干预风险上升

FOMC纪要偏鹰压制DXY徘徊101；欧系货币反弹、日元偏弱抬升干预风险；油价受中东溢价上行、金价受美债收益率攀升承压——交易机会何在？

9

Jul 2026

标普500指数关注7,140点支撑位或回测7,740点，第四浪调整行情展开

标普500第4浪调整延续，“冲顶回落”兑现但未达下行靶区；关键触发位7,551/7,348，跌破望测7,140±50，站上则冲7,679–7,739。财报季成变盘催化。

9

Jul 2026

美元/泰铢走高，泰国通胀放缓强化市场对泰国央行将利率维持在1%的押注

泰国6月通胀回落至2.4%巩固BoT利率1%长期按兵不动预期，能源降温压制通胀。美泰利差支撑USD/THB上探六个月上沿，策略偏多并可卖权收租。

9

Jul 2026

阿根廷5月工厂产出下滑加剧，令比索承压并加深市场对主权风险的担忧

警惕阿根廷工业衰退加深：5月工业产出同比由-2.8%扩大至-5.7%。宏观与盈利承压、比索或走弱，股债风险溢价上行，关注NDF与期权对冲。

9

Jul 2026

美国消费者信贷5月意外收缩，强化对经济衰退及降息预期

美国5月消费信贷意外转负，仅降1.8亿美元，远逊预期增171亿美元，折射居民杠杆扩张乏力、信贷收紧加剧，衰退预警升温，降息预期前移、波动率或上行。

9

Jul 2026

日元下挫，鹰派美联储会议纪要提振美元，美元/日元升破162关口，干预风险升温

美联储纪要偏鹰推升加息预期与美债收益率，叠加地缘风险支撑美元，美元/日元站稳162上方并指向162.84突破；警惕日方干预风险回撤。

9

Jul 2026

随着美联储与欧洲央行政策分化扩大，欧元/美元承压；期权偏度显示进一步下行风险

美欧政策分化强化美元避险支撑，EUR/USD上行乏力，期权风险逆转偏空且隐波低，技术受压50日均线；关注1.0700/1.0650支撑，反弹阻力1.0800。

9

Jul 2026

美元/新元小幅走高，华侨银行称1.2955下方上行空间受限，下破风险仍存

USD/SGD 窄幅走高，动能回升但受制1.2955强阻力；短线支撑1.2920/1.2910。UOB仍评估1–3周下行风险升温，关注1.2890破位，低隐波利好买入Put布局。

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