Live Updates

16

Jul 2026

在区间震荡主导下美元/日元小幅走低；汇价守住21日均线以上，上行偏向仍存

美元/日元窄幅回落，短线或固守161.70–162.30；未来1-3周维持160.60–163.00震荡。关键钩子：守住21日EMA约161.00，仍具上行期权策略价值。

16

Jul 2026

道明证券指出：6月零售销售持平、PPI走软，美元面临下行风险

TD Securities 料6月零售零增、PPI转负，消费动能降温或拖累美元；核心PCE温和上修，美联储7月料按兵不动，建议多欧元、空美元、做多美债对冲。

16

Jul 2026

英镑/美元自两个月高位回落，油价与地缘政治因素提振美元；英国财政立场支撑英镑

英镑/美元自1.3560两月高位回落至1.3525，美元受能源通胀与避险支撑。英国政局趋稳、财政纪律预期托底。技术面超买但趋势偏多，建议跌破1.3500逢低布局。

16

Jul 2026

受霍尔木兹海峡中断担忧及华盛顿对伊朗立场影响，WTI徘徊于79美元附近，波动性预期上升

WTI欧盘回落至79美元附近但仍逼近高点，霍尔木兹海峡供给中断与美伊升级推升风险溢价；建议布局短期限外看涨/牛市价差及跨式，捕捉波动扩张。

16

Jul 2026

西班牙30年期国债收益率升至4.286%，利差扩大推升长期融资成本

西班牙30年期国债拍卖收益率升至4.286%，较前次抬升24.8bp，长期融资成本上行信号强烈。外围国债风险溢价或扩张，利差交易与CDS对冲机会浮现。

16

Jul 2026

在油价推升通胀风险之际，美元走强且加息预期升温，金价跌破4,050美元

金价欧盘跌至4,025美元，美元受偏紧政策预期支撑；PPI回落仅缓解短期压力。油价高位推升通胀与加息定价，技术偏空，关注4,000失守风险。

16

Jul 2026

英国央行官员布里登表示：中东冲击不太可能导致通胀固化，英镑走弱

Breeden称若无中东冲突英国通胀本可达2%目标，地缘冲击难固化；市场评估偏鸽，英镑承压。关注更快降息定价：做空GBP/USD、买入看跌期权及Sonia期货。

16

Jul 2026

美元指数在美国通胀数据走软提振美联储暂停加息预期之际缓步下探100关口

6月CPI、PPI走弱令DXY逼近100关口，核心PCE或降至3.3%缓解紧缩预期。建议配置DXY近月看跌、欧元看涨及SOFR期货，辅以深虚值美元看涨对冲。

16

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎维持在0.8060附近，因市场对美联储加息押注降温且避险资金流入提供支撑

美元走弱与避险买盘拉锯：USD/CHF 0.8060震荡，0.8000/200日SMA成关键支撑，0.8100压制上行；建议区间期权（铁鹰）收割权利金并配置看涨保险。

16

Jul 2026

AMD涨势逼近第三浪（III）峰值，第四浪（IV）回调空间打开，随后有望延续更广泛上行趋势

AMD 自 4 月低点呈 III 浪冲动上行，末端楔形暗示动能衰竭：短期或进入 IV 浪回撤，目标 360–436，270 上方多头结构不变，期权策略可先防守后布局。

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