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17

Jul 2026

持仓平仓引发人工智能与芯片股抛售潮，盈利预期转变导致市场重新定价

AI与芯片股遭去杠杆回补驱动的拥挤交易出清，基本面边际失效。台日股指重挫，台积电高增仍承压。DeepSeek低价扩张压缩溢价，利润或向算力电力与分发迁移。

17

Jul 2026

奥地利HICP通胀降温至3.2%，加大市场对欧洲央行降息的押注并拖累欧元走弱

奥地利6月HICP同比降至3.2%，较前值回落0.5个百分点，通胀动能趋缓，强化市场对欧央行更激进降息定价，利多欧债与欧股、利空欧元。

17

Jul 2026

奥地利6月HICP通胀率与预期持平，增加欧洲央行降息路径偏鹰风险

奥地利6月HICP环比0%高于预期，通胀粘性凸显，ECB或转鹰。策略：做空2026年Euribor期货、买EUR/USD看涨期权、做空奥地利债对冲Bund以捕捉利差走阔。

17

Jul 2026

英镑走弱，中东紧张局势推升美元需求；市场关注密歇根消费者信心指数

避险情绪升温致GBP/USD回落至1.3470，1.3550阻力未破且技术面超买；英国经济数据疲弱、英央行偏鸽，叠加美元走强预期，关注密歇根信心与期权对冲。

17

Jul 2026

英镑下挫，中东紧张局势推升美元需求，期权交易员关注波动率对冲策略

中东局势升级推升避险美元，GBP/USD续跌至1.3460；美通胀偏弱限制美元；市场分歧美联储9月路径、完全定价英央行11月加息，建议买短期看跌及跨式，并以布油看涨期权对冲供应冲击。

17

Jul 2026

WTI徘徊于79美元附近，中东袭击加剧霍尔木兹海峡供应中断担忧，周线有望收涨

WTI逼近79美元，或创4月来最大周涨幅；美伊冲突升级、霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险推升供应中断溢价。关注看涨期权及多布伦特空WTI价差策略。

17

Jul 2026

美伊紧张局势推升美元，欧元兑美元走低；美联储收紧政策预期限制涨幅

能源通胀与美伊地缘风险推升美元、强化美联储紧缩预期，EUR/USD 连跌徘徊1.1435；技术动能中性，关注1.1330支撑与1.1508突破，策略偏区间震荡。

17

Jul 2026

印度黄金价格小幅走高，央行购金支撑衍生品市场看涨前景

印度金价周五续涨至12367卢比/克，央行创纪录增持夯实“底部”。衍生品交易宜逢回调布局牛市价差，警惕USD/INR走弱与波动率上行。

17

Jul 2026

美元/加元自1.4000回落，原油走强、美联储押注与中东紧张局势重塑前景

美元/加元回升乏力徘徊1.4035；油价高位支撑加元但推升通胀、强化美联储鹰派预期限制下行。中东冲突升温加剧避险，关注美数据与期权对冲策略。

17

Jul 2026

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡以中断原油运输，随着美军打击持续，WTI油价上行并推升波动性风险

伊朗警告美袭持续将封锁霍尔木兹、能源出口归零，地缘风险溢价抬升推升WTI至79.22美元；建议以WTI短期限虚值看涨或跨式布局极端波动。

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