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17

Jul 2026

欧元/美元维持稳定，油价飙升重塑通胀与利率前景

中东风险推升油价周涨12%重燃“更久紧缩”，欧元/美元1.1438震荡周线微升；市场押注欧央行9月加息、美联储12月概率75%，建议原油与外汇期权对冲。

17

Jul 2026

英镑下挫，中东原油飙升推升美元；市场上调美联储加息概率

中东冲突推升油价与美元避险，英镑连续下挫至1.3449但周仍涨0.4%。美通胀预期回落却难改10月加息概率61%，期权跨式与对冲成关键。

17

Jul 2026

受伊朗威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡影响，WTI油价突破81美元，推动周度大涨并加剧期权波动率

WTI逼近81美元，周涨或超13%，中东冲突升级及霍尔木兹/曼德海峡封锁威胁推升风险溢价。机构提示隐波飙升，建议配置虚值看涨与跨式应对极端波动。

17

Jul 2026

英镑在年内高点下方盘整，伯纳姆政策预期支撑英镑/美元上行趋势

英镑/美元自一年高位回撤但上行趋势未改，政策转向预期支撑风险偏好，1.34成关键支撑。衍生品布局看涨价差或卖出虚值看跌，警惕失守触发止损。

17

Jul 2026

美元/日元在近40年高位附近企稳，油价、美联储政策前景及资金回流风险令日元承压

美元/日元逼近四十年高位，利差与强美元支撑，油价抬升日本输入性通胀。关注3.6万亿美元对外净资产回流或引发挤仓；建议期权价差、虚值日元看涨对冲，并配置套息与原油联动策略。

17

Jul 2026

加拿大皇家银行预计加拿大6月CPI降温至2.8%，加拿大央行维持利率不变支撑区间震荡交易

RBC料加拿大6月CPI同比降至2.8%、核心约1.6%，通胀回归目标强化央行按兵不动预期；利率与加元或陷低波动，关注CORRA及外汇期权卖波动策略。

17

Jul 2026

美元因避险情绪升温而走强，但美元指数（DXY）面临跌破100.5关键支撑的风险

避险升温推升美元但难掩结构性转弱：DXY在100.5暂获支撑，若OIS加息预期回撤、利差优势消退，建议逢高做空或配置美元看跌期权。

17

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎下滑至0.8070附近，瑞郎避险需求及期权波动率上升

USD/CHF逼近0.8070历史低位；密歇根信心回升仅有限支撑美元。中东风险推升瑞郎避险与隐含波动率；关注SNB干预，期权建议跨式及风险逆转布局反弹。

17

Jul 2026

由于伊朗威胁封锁曼德海峡引发供应趋紧并加剧市场波动，布伦特原油价格反弹

伊朗扬言封锁曼德海峡推升地缘溢价，布伦特一周涨近12%、波动率抬升；中国到港回补强化近端紧张。关注期权对冲、价差交易与尾部风险。

17

Jul 2026

富国银行上调2026年全球经济增长预期，下调通胀预测，称各国央行政策路径分化

富国银行上调2026年全球GDP至2.7%、下调全球CPI至4.3%，油价假设走弱重塑“增长—通胀”组合；政策分化加剧，衍生品可布局卖波动、接收互换及汇率期权机会。

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