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20

Jul 2026

中国央行将美元兑人民币中间价定得弱于市场预期，利差扩大助长看空人民币押注

中间价上调至6.7948且显著弱于模型值，释放容忍人民币走弱信号：叠加中美利差偏阔与经济修复不均，波动或放大；关注USD/CNH短期期权与多头策略。

20

Jul 2026

中国人民银行维持贷款市场报价利率不变，澳元及亚太市场波动率保持低位

LPR维持不变点燃“低波动”预期：1年期3.00%、5年期3.50%均持平，AUD/USD仅微升至0.6983；建议区间期权、IRS曲线趋平，并防御性配置商品看跌期权。

20

Jul 2026

受中东紧张局势提振美元，欧元/美元稳定于1.1430附近；市场聚焦欧洲央行会议

中东冲突抬升风险溢价推升美元避险，EUR/USD回落至1.1430；油价走高强化通胀再起与美联储更鹰预期。临近欧央行，期权跨式捕捉波动。

20

Jul 2026

WTI油价跃升至83美元上方，美伊冲突加剧引发对中东供应中断的担忧

美伊冲突升级推升WTI跳空突破83美元，7月累涨近20%；霍尔木兹供应中断风险或促油价上探90。建议采取牛市价差、关注近月反向与金油比，严控保证金风险。

20

Jul 2026

中国央行维持关键政策利率在3%不变，货币政策基调保持稳健

重磅稳预期：央行按兵不动，维持关键政策利率3%不变，符合市场共识，延续稳健货币政策取向；FXStreet称报道聚焦外汇市场，未附加新措施与前瞻指引。

20

Jul 2026

受美伊紧张局势推动油价走强并强化美联储加息预期，金价在4000美元附近徘徊

金价亚洲盘下探逼近4000美元，二季度累跌14%创十年最差；美伊冲突推升油价与通胀预期，FedWatch定价9月加息概率61%，压制黄金，建议看跌期权及价差。

20

Jul 2026

7月Rightmove指数跌幅扩大，加剧英国房地产市场及英镑前景压力

英国Rightmove房价指数7月环比跌1%，跌幅扩大且弱于季节性均值；高按揭利率压制需求。英镑承压，关注GBP看跌期权、开发商做空及做多SONIA期货。

20

Jul 2026

新西兰6月贸易顺差大幅收窄，加剧纽元与利率前景压力

警惕纽元：新西兰6月贸易顺差骤降至2300万纽元（前值8亿），收窄7.77亿；出口动能转弱或推升波动，强化RBNZ鸽派预期与做空、看跌期权策略。

20

Jul 2026

新西兰6月年度贸易逆差扩大，加剧纽元及利率前景压力

新西兰6月年度贸易逆差扩大至-37.4亿纽元，同比缺口增3.8亿；出口不及进口或压制NZD。策略：做空NZD、买入NZD/USD看跌期权，并布局RBNZ降息预期。

19

Jul 2026

新西兰6月进口下滑，加重纽元承压并推升市场对新西兰央行降息的押注

新西兰6月进口微降至80.7亿美元，折射内需边际走弱。降息预期升温或压制纽元，策略关注NZD/USD看跌期权、接收固定掉期，并跟踪贸易差额压力。

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