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24

Jul 2026

美股下挫，特斯拉与谷歌资本开支引发科技股领跌抛售，收益率上行

美股突遭抛售，AI资本开支吞噬自由现金流，特斯拉、谷歌领跌拖累纳指跌2.1%，“Mag”指数重挫4.8%；油价破百、10年美债近4.7%，9月加息隐含概率升至70%。

24

Jul 2026

欧洲央行将存款便利利率维持在2.25%，市场定价9月加息预期；德意志银行提示进一步风险

欧央行存款利率维持2.25%，措辞仍偏鹰，市场计入9月加息25bp概率82%。德银押注再加息两次，建议做空Euribor、熊市趋平并布局欧元看涨。

24

Jul 2026

白宫重启“301条款”关税措施，市场严阵以待美联储鹰派指引与油价上行压力

白宫对60国加征新关税并改用301条款，关税风险趋长期化；市场聚焦下周FOMC或更鹰派。建议买入股指防御性看跌、原油短期看涨，做空SOFR或债券。

24

Jul 2026

英镑与英国国债震荡，伯纳姆减税引发预算担忧与波动率押注

伯纳姆新政减税密集但融资未明，引发英镑与英国国债承压、收益率上行。关注秋季预算潜在财政扩张，建议做空英镑、卖空英债期货，并用长跨式捕捉波动。

24

Jul 2026

美国PMI初值、油价飙升及美联储加息概率上升为美元及欧元/美元走势定调

美国7月PMI初值将揭示投入成本与就业趋势；油价飙升或推升通胀预期，强化9月加息定价，美元偏强压制欧元/美元，衍生品宜提前布局波动率上行。

24

Jul 2026

土耳其央行维持政策利率在37%，流动性持续偏紧令实际融资利率维持在近40%水平

土央行维持37%政策利率、有效融资锁定40%上沿；通胀与外储风险犹存。抓住紧流动性窗口：做多TRY短期远期套息，并以3-6月USD/TRY看涨期权对冲。

24

Jul 2026

欧元/英镑维持在0.8550附近，欧元区与英国PMI好于预期，但关税及中东风险仍存

欧元/英镑徘徊0.8550近持平；欧英PMI与英零售超预期提振基本面，但中东风险、油价与美关税压制风险偏好，避险需求托底，波动受限。

24

Jul 2026

英镑/美元料延续跌势，美联储与英国央行政策分化支撑做空英镑交易思路

GBP/USD看空交易机会显现：政策分化压制英镑，建议反弹做空；若跌破1.2650或下探1.2480，1.2820上方止损，并关注非农与零售。

24

Jul 2026

美元/日元回落，日方干预风险逼近；油价冲击及美国数据支撑美元走势

美元兑日元逼近164与四十年高位，套息利差支撑但干预风险升温；中东冲突推油价与通胀预期，美就业强劲加剧美联储鹰派，建议期权对冲并布局波动。

24

Jul 2026

美元走强：中东紧张局势与关税风险推升油价，令欧元与黄金承压

美元走强、欧元承压；美元/日元创高引爆干预预期。中东升级推WTI上破88.60并抬升通胀与更鹰派美联储定价。建议运用期权对冲汇率、原油与股指尾部风险，黄金短线偏空。

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