Live Updates

28

Jul 2026

美国两年期国债拍卖中标收益率升至4.315%，强化市场对鹰派利率路径的预期

美国2年期国债拍卖中标收益率升至4.315%，较前次上行12.6个基点，融资成本抬升，强化短端偏鹰预期；关注利率期货、熊市趋平及QQQ期权对冲。

28

Jul 2026

随着美元兑新元走弱且增长前景改善，金管局再度收紧新元政策区间斜率

MAS连续第二次收紧政策，上调SGD NEER升值斜率推动新元温和走强；增长或上修、通胀预测维持。交易可卖虚值USD/SGD看涨，关注短久期与收益率曲线趋平。

28

Jul 2026

美元企稳，随着美伊紧张局势缓和，油价在美联储与英国央行决议前走低

美伊停火降温，美元指数震荡持平；油价暴跌缓解通胀预期、提振风险货币。聚焦美联储与英欧日央行及数据，期权策略布局原油区间、黄金偏多、美元/日元防回撤。

28

Jul 2026

欧元/日元维持在163.70附近，日元走强在干预担忧加剧之际抑制押注情绪

欧元/日元163.70附近企稳，日元走强叠加干预预期压制追多情绪，汇价窄幅震荡。关注186.50突破与185.35支撑，188.23、184.40为关键目标。

28

Jul 2026

在大宗商品利好推动下，拉美外汇与债券走强；在新兴市场分化背景下哥伦比亚仍维持鹰派立场

拉美汇率与利率资产受贸易条件改善及高实际利率支撑，能源/农产品出口国或再获冲突溢价；但美债收益率上行压制套息，政策分化下聚焦哥伦比亚等选择性机会。

28

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎延续六连涨，市场预计瑞士央行将维持接近零利率至2027年

钩子：USD/CHF六连涨逼近0.8200关口。美元强势叠加市场押注瑞士央行近零利率延至2027，瑞郎承压；上看0.8215/0.8300，回撤守0.8150止损。

28

Jul 2026

黄金逼近4,070美元，国债收益率下行与美联储政策不确定性抵消美元趋稳及原油走软影响

美债收益率回落、地缘风险降温推动金价升至4,070美元，市场聚焦美联储决议与利率定价分歧；油价大跌削弱避险，但中国净进口与央行购金支撑，关注4,100阻力与4,000支撑。

28

Jul 2026

德国预计经济增长0.6%，Ifo指数回升，但油价波动与能源成本上升令前景蒙上阴影

警惕油价冲击：德国2026增长仅0.6%，Ifo回升或高估景气；布伦特90美元附近剧震，增长重心后移至2027。建议原油跨式、DAX买入虚值看跌、做空欧元并用TTF期权对冲。

28

Jul 2026

随着欧元区GDP数据及美联储决议临近且油价走软，欧元兑美元回落至1.1370附近

欧元兑美元回落至1.1370，市场静待欧元区GDP与美联储决议。地缘缓和致WTI跌逾7%压低通胀预期；技术承压均线，建议衍生品防御布局，关注1.1369破位风险。

28

Jul 2026

布伦特油价跌破90美元，因美伊紧张局势缓和，抹去突破100美元涨势并引发抛售潮

布伦特油价因美伊紧张降温大跌逾10%，失守100美元与90美元关键支撑。技术面或下探88.66/86.05；供给韧性与需求走弱压制反弹，策略偏空。

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