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Live Updates

28

Jul 2026

美元指数自年内高位回落，受美债收益率下行及油价跌破80美元拖累

美元指数冲高回落至101.30，仍稳居多条均线之上；WTI跌破80美元压低美债收益率，叠加CPI走弱与信心下降，市场押注FOMC按兵不动。

28

Jul 2026

欧元/美元小幅走高：美元走软抵消德国央行谨慎表态，关键阻力位在1.1416

美元走软及美国信心回落推动EUR/USD上探1.1400，但德央行警示增速降温与能源通胀风险；技术面1.1380支撑、1.1416压制，低流动性下宜区间期权与保护性对冲。

28

Jul 2026

德国商业银行将黄金年末目标价下调至4,500美元，实际收益率与美联储政策前景构成压制

金价自1月高位回撤近30%，受实际收益率上行与美联储偏鹰预期压制；德国商业银行下调年末目标至4500美元，称ETF流入与利率预期不转向难反弹。

28

Jul 2026

布伦特原油下跌，美伊会谈降温战争风险，霍尔木兹海峡与黑海原油流量仍受关注

美伊暂停升级且谈判乐观，布伦特回落；走势仍锚定实物流量。霍尔木兹/曼德复航与黑海装船回升或续压油价，但破裂风险使风险溢价难消。

28

Jul 2026

韩综指暴跌凸显其与标普500相关性偏低，离散度及成分股波动率飙升

韩股KOSPI暴跌引发全球资产背离：相关性下行抑制指数波动，离散度与隐含指标却处历史高位，科技板块主导分化；聚焦7月29日FOMC与9月降息定价。

28

Jul 2026

英镑在1.3300附近止步，美元在美联储与英国央行决议前走强

英镑兑美元纽约早盘徘徊1.3300，波动收窄。美元指数创月高、避险升温，叠加美联储与英央行议息在即，汇价受均线压制；策略建议反弹做空，目标1.3250/1.3200。

28

Jul 2026

英镑走软，交易员下调对英国央行加息的押注，英镑/美元测试7月低点

英镑兑美元延续看跌反转，回落至7月初水平；市场下调对英国央行进一步收紧预期，短端利率定价走弱。关注周四议息与新预测；技术面偏空，支撑1.3250、阻力1.3350。

28

Jul 2026

随着美元走强及美联储加息预期升温，金价回落至4,020美元下方

亚洲股市暴跌下黄金失守避险属性，纽约早盘跌至4,020美元，美元与美债受追捧。美联储偏鹰、ETF大幅流出压制，策略关注4,075阻力，目标4,000/3,950。

28

Jul 2026

美元/加元稳守1.4105附近，市场聚焦美联储利率决议，油价下挫与收益率利差扩大拖累加元

美元/加元徘徊1.4105高位，静待美联储决议与点阵图；油价走弱与美加利差压制加元。建议区间期权策略，并布局长久期加元看涨对冲政策转向。

28

Jul 2026

市场将美联储决议定价为60:40“暂停”，并存在可逆转的25个基点加息风险

FOMC决议临近，市场定价暂停/加息约60:40。通胀降温与曲线5年期偏贵支撑按兵不动，但仍防25bp“保护性”加息，建议SOFR期权多波动率对冲。

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