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Live Updates

31

Jul 2026

意大利7月CPI同比2.8%，符合预期，欧洲央行政策预期与意大利国债（BTP）利差保持稳定

意大利7月CPI同比2.8%符合预期，通胀锚定提振市场情绪；欧债与ECB政策路径压力缓释，BTP-Bund利差或趋窄震荡，建议卖波动与中性期权策略。

31

Jul 2026

欧元区核心HICP高于预期，推升欧洲央行“更久维持高利率”风险，波及债券、外汇及股票市场

欧元区7月核心HICP同比2.5%超预期0.1个百分点，潜在通胀韧性凸显；ECB或延后宽松、维持高利率。策略：空短债、做多欧元、期权对冲欧股。

31

Jul 2026

欧元区7月核心通胀停滞，强化市场对欧洲央行降息押注并提振欧元同业拆借利率（Euribor）期货

欧元区7月核心HICP环比降至0%，通胀动能显著降温；或促ECB加速宽松定价。Euribor期货、Bund期货偏多，EUR/USD承压，欧洲股指受益。

31

Jul 2026

英国央行以6比3投票维持利率不变，并释放加息将保持耐心的信号，英镑面临下行风险

英央行按兵不动且缺乏前瞻指引，6:3分歧难改偏鸽立场；市场下调收紧定价，英镑支撑弱化。交易建议做空GBP/USD或买入EUR/GBP看涨。

31

Jul 2026

随着霍尔木兹海峡航运恢复、供应担忧缓解，WTI油价跌破80美元

WTI连续回落至80美元附近，霍尔木兹通行量恢复至战前30%–35%缓解供应忧虑；若升至50%–60%或重陷供给过剩，叠加沙特护航联盟，油价下行风险加剧。

31

Jul 2026

葡萄牙7月CPI下降0.5%，强化市场对欧洲央行降息预期并加剧欧元走软押注

葡萄牙7月CPI环比骤降0.5%逆转升势，通胀动能转弱或倒逼ECB加码宽松；利率期货与国债期货偏多，欧元承压，警惕数据波动与鹰派风险。

31

Jul 2026

葡萄牙7月CPI降至3.0%，强化市场对欧洲央行秋季降息的押注

葡萄牙7月CPI同比升3.0%，较前值回落0.2个百分点，通胀降温强化ECB秋季降息预期：利率与欧债收益率或下行，关注Bund/Bobl多头及EUR/USD看跌、Euribor多头。

31

Jul 2026

日元兑主要货币在干预推动下大幅上涨，疲弱美国数据拖累美元；英镑与欧元走强

疑似官方干预致美元/日元急挫破158，美元指数创阶段最大跌幅；美GDP与核心PCE走弱重塑降息预期。策略聚焦：日元看跌期权、利率多头、黄金长久期看涨。

31

Jul 2026

日元在疑似日本财务省入市干预下大幅走强；日本央行维持利率不变并警示通胀风险

日元纽约时段急升，美元/日元163跌至158引发财务省疑似干预猜测；日银利率维持1.00%，强调汇率推升通胀风险，通胀预测微调并释放温和收紧信号。

31

Jul 2026

英国央行维持基准利率在3.75%不变，贝利淡化加息可能性；市场重新定价9月加息预期

英国央行按兵不动维持3.75%，贝利偏鸽令9月加息预期骤降。机构建议做多SONIA、配置两年期Gilt看涨，并以GBP/USD看跌对冲，叠加布油虚值看涨防尾部通胀。

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