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8

Oct 2026

美国国债收益率升至数十年高位，收益率曲线信号引导美元走势，市场聚焦美国通胀数据公布前夕

10年期美债收益率飙至5.31%创24年新高、DXY重返102上方；但美元续强关键仍在2年期再度领跑。10月CPI或重定价加息预期，触发突破或回撤。

8

Oct 2026

泰国通胀升至五个月高位，收益率利差持续对泰铢构成压力

泰国9月CPI升至2.8%但低于预期，逼近BOT目标上沿；供给端推升通胀、利率或长期维持1%。美泰10年利差扩至291bp，泰铢承压，建议布局USD/THB反弹期权。

8

Oct 2026

美国国债收益率升至2002年以来新高，霍尔木兹海峡油价飙升推升通胀担忧并提振美元

美债收益率飙至多年高位，霍尔木兹风险推油价重返100美元强化通胀预期；美德利差扩至1.8个百分点支撑美元指数走强，关注债券拍卖与衍生品对冲机会。

8

Oct 2026

纽约联储调查显示：短期通胀预期上升，家庭财务状况走弱

纽约联储调查：一年期通胀预期升至3.9%，显著高于2%目标，大宗商品推升；长端预期锚定3%且财务信心走弱，提示短端利率高位、曲线趋平，关注SOFR及商品、零售对冲。

8

Oct 2026

越南三季度GDP增速创后疫情时期新高，通胀上行限制央行宽松空间

越南三季度GDP同比飙升10%超预期，制造投资驱动扩张；但CPI升至5.1%突破目标，SBV宽松空间收窄，股汇衍生品波动与再定价风险抬升。

8

Oct 2026

随着美债收益率升至数十年高位、美元走强，欧元兑美元下跌并逼近17个月低点

欧元/美元跌至1.1195、逼近17个月低位；美债收益率创新高推升美元。欧元区财政疑虑致利差走阔。聚焦FOMC纪要，建议以短期看跌期权对冲。

8

Oct 2026

在CTA抛售压力下黄金触底，央行增持与ETF资金流入对金价形成支撑

CTA抛售致金价承压，实质利率上行与美元走强共振。然ETF净流入、央行连续增持构筑底部，黄金或与实质利率脱钩，牛市延续至2027。

8

Oct 2026

EIA数据显示馏分油库存意外下降，柴油和取暖油供应前景趋紧

EIA数据显示10月2日当周馏分油库存意外下降4.2万桶，较预期持平显著偏紧；季节性需求抬升或推升取暖油、原油期货，建议关注期权与价差配置。

8

Oct 2026

加元企稳，阿尔伯塔省公投临近；美元/加元维持在公允价值上方

加元在美元强势下持稳且相对抗跌；8月贸易顺差支撑基本面，但艾伯塔公投临近或放大波动。USD/CAD高于公允1.4169，关注1.4250阻力与1.4100/1.4000支撑。

8

Oct 2026

美联储会议纪要暗示或将进一步收紧货币政策，人工智能需求风险推升通胀压力，美元指数稳守102上方

美联储纪要偏鹰：9月加息25基点，多数官员指向年内再加息；AI投资或推升通胀。美元指数守102，期货定价年末加息概率高，关注CPI触发交易机会。

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