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3

Aug 2026

尽管市场寄望特朗普与伊朗达成协议，WTI仍大幅下挫；油轮遇袭推高中东供应风险

WTI跳空后仍跌近7%至79.30美元，特朗普称中东或速达协议压制情绪；但霍尔木兹通行放缓、油轮遇袭与OPEC+增产并存，供应中断风险或触发反弹。

3

Aug 2026

日本与美国加大协调支持日元力度，片山暗示将出台进一步美元流动性措施

美日罕见协同买入日元并拟动用FIMA遏制“过度无序”波动，USD/JPY跌至156.35。衍生品交易员宜预期波动率上行，配置短期看跌期权与看跌价差，规避美元多头风险。

3

Aug 2026

韩国制造业PMI升至53.1，7月产出与新订单增速加快

韩国7月S&P Global制造业PMI升至53.1，扩张动能增强，反映全球科技需求韧性与半导体出口高增。关注KOSPI200看涨、USD/KRW做空及半导体ETF机会。

3

Aug 2026

日本制造业PMI不及预期但仍处扩张区间，提振日元及利率上行押注

日本7月Jibun Bank制造业PMI录得54.5低于预期54.7仍处扩张区间；扩张边际放缓，提示短期波动非趋势反转，关注日元期权、日经对冲及JGB期货做空机会。

3

Aug 2026

美元/日元走高，美元兑日元干预风险与中东紧张局势推升市场波动率

美元/日元反弹至157.65，市场警惕美日罕见联合干预风险攀升；中东局势与日央行政策左右波动。建议以价外日元看涨期权及价差策略对冲。

3

Aug 2026

OPEC+将在9月将原油产量提高18.8万桶/日，中东冲突加剧供应压力

OPEC+9月增产18.8万桶/日冲击市场，WTI暴跌6%至81美元；中东供给扰动未解、需求偏弱与美国产量高企，波动率上行，空头及期权对冲策略受关注。

2

Aug 2026

特朗普暂缓对伊朗实施打击，霍尔木兹海峡谈判临近，油价波动性维持高位

突发：特朗普暂缓对伊朗新增打击，预期周一启动谈判，聚焦核协议与霍尔木兹海峡通行。原油衍生品波动率或高位运行，建议跨式策略与保护性对冲。

2

Aug 2026

无人机袭击埃及港口致苏伊士航运走廊风险上升，原油与股市剧烈震荡

埃及港口遭无人机袭击引燃美国LNG油轮，苏伊士通道风险骤升；原油与股指高波动延续。建议以原油跨式、指数保护性看跌及谷物看涨期权对冲。

2

Aug 2026

COT数据显示美元净多头创纪录，欧元转为看涨；原油走软，小麦空头拥挤

COT警报：美元投机净多创史高、商业端现555期极值，十余年罕见，美元回撤风险陡升；欧元334期双端看多印证。原油转空、天然气逼近多头极值，小麦空头拥挤。

2

Aug 2026

微软推动超大市值科技股分化，Azure业绩超预期，美元兑日元在干预押注下走低

AI业绩分化引爆市场：微软财报超预期市值激增4,500亿美元，Meta、苹果承压；日元疑遭干预大幅波动，油跌金涨，聚焦非农与期权策略机会。

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