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14

Aug 2026

香港第二季度GDP萎缩0.6%，市场关注下半年增长动能及股市波动性升温

香港二季度GDP环比降0.6%符合预期，消费与旅游拖累延续。下半年动能存疑，股市上行受限；建议恒指看跌价差、科技股跨式及关注HIBOR衍生品机会。

14

Aug 2026

欧元/美元维持窄幅区间震荡，疲软的美国通胀数据缓和市场对美联储加息预期

EUR/USD现报1.1537，聚焦1.1511–1.1545区间突破信号：上破看1.1570反弹、逢高布空；下破指向1.1492并延伸1.1400。通胀降温压低9月加息概率至35%，警惕霍尔木兹风险波动。

14

Aug 2026

欧元/美元走高，市场加大对欧洲央行加息的押注且美联储9月加息概率回落，汇价挑战100日均线

欧元/美元欧市升至1.1550，市场押注欧洲央行9月加息25bp至2.50%提振；美国通胀降温令美联储加息概率降至35%，美元承压，关注1.1567阻力与1.1600突破。

14

Aug 2026

随着市场对日本央行加息的押注升温，英镑兑日元走弱，市场静待英国经济数据公布

英镑兑日元欧市回落，市场押注日本央行最快9月加息并可能加快紧缩，叠加干预预期支撑日元；英国数据偏弱、加息概率低。建议布局GBP/JPY偏空期权价差。

14

Aug 2026

市场将日本央行9月加息概率上调至75%，日元升幅有限且干预风险逼近

彭博称政府与日本央行立场趋同，市场对9月加息定价升温：隐含概率升至75%。若落地将创最快紧缩节奏；但日元偏平静，160干预“封顶”压制上行空间。

14

Aug 2026

随着战时能源价格飙升消退，波兰与捷克国债收益率上行，推动中东欧通胀降温并重塑利率互换交易策略

中东欧7月通胀普遍回落，波兰、捷克逆势受能源冲击。利率分化扩大：建议波捷IRS付固定对冲收益率上行，匈罗IRS收固定博降息；多头区域电力期货。

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