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Live Updates

13

Aug 2026

英镑小幅走高；美国PPI回落削弱美联储加息预期，美元指数跌破100

英镑借美元回落温和反弹：美国PPI与初请走弱压低美联储再紧缩预期，市场押注9月暂停概率升至约60%；英国GDP增速放缓，后续通胀与信心数据或重塑定价。

13

Aug 2026

美国CPI趋稳，美联储加息概率回落，美元维持区间震荡，套息交易获得支撑

美国CPI符合预期、美联储加息预期回落，美元区间震荡、风险资产反弹；建议谨慎维持套息，防日元干预与美债长端上行，配置互换期权及短期限权利金策略。

13

Aug 2026

美国四周期国库券收益率回落至3.625%，强化市场对美联储开启降息周期的预期

美国4周期国库券中标收益率降至3.625%，较前值3.64%回落1.5个基点，释放短端融资成本边际下行信号，强化宽松预期与前端利率衍生品配置及曲线陡峭化交易机会。

13

Aug 2026

美元/加元维持在1.3940附近，疲软美国数据抵消油价走弱及加元疲软影响

美国PPI与就业数据偏软压制美元，但WTI跌破80美元拖累加元，美元/加元1.3940区间震荡；建议期权区间收权利金并以价外看涨对冲潜在鹰派及地缘风险。

13

Aug 2026

英国第二季度GDP超预期，人工智能驱动的投资支撑增长，但增速放缓令英镑前景蒙阴

英国Q2 GDP环比0.4%由投资与消费驱动，但ICT/AI动能趋顶；H2或仅0.1%受政策与外部逆风拖累。建议做空GBP、接收互换、做多英债并买跨式押注波动率上行。

13

Aug 2026

印度CPI因食品成本上升而小幅回升，市场预计印度央行将维持回购利率在5.25%不变

印度7月CPI升至4.45%，食品通胀5.52%推升，连续两月高于RBI目标但仍在容忍区间；政策利率或延续5.25%暂停，建议短端OIS对冲年末潜在收紧。

13

Aug 2026

IREN凭借获得英伟达Exemplar Cloud认证及完成微软Horizon 1项目交付，加速布局AI基础设施增长

IREN借可再生能源园区与HPC平台切入AI基建，获NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud资质并交付微软，叠加ABC调整完成与看涨OI增25%，重估行情或临近。

13

Aug 2026

英国GDP超预期，德意志银行预计受能源账单及预算风险影响下半年增速放缓

英国上半年GDP年化2%领跑G7，二季度内需与投资超预期或促全年上调至1.1%；但三季度起能源与预算不确定性压制动能，波动率或抬升。

13

Aug 2026

美元/日元接近160，东京支持日本央行加快加息步伐，期权市场偏向日元上行方向

美元/日元逼近160关口，日本政府挺BoJ加速加息致美日利差收窄；财政风险溢价趋稳、干预预期升温，建议以看跌及障碍期权布局回落至152。

13

Aug 2026

美国核心PPI低于预期，强化降息预期并提振风险偏好

美国7月核心PPI环比仅升0.2%低于预期，生产端通胀降温强化降息定价。策略：做多SOFR期货，标普500期权偏多价差，逢高做空美元指数。

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