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14

Aug 2026

香港第二季度GDP萎缩0.6%，市场关注下半年增长动能及股市波动性升温

香港二季度GDP环比降0.6%符合预期，消费与旅游拖累延续。下半年动能存疑，股市上行受限；建议恒指看跌价差、科技股跨式及关注HIBOR衍生品机会。

14

Aug 2026

欧元/美元维持窄幅区间震荡，疲软的美国通胀数据缓和市场对美联储加息预期

EUR/USD现报1.1537，聚焦1.1511–1.1545区间突破信号：上破看1.1570反弹、逢高布空；下破指向1.1492并延伸1.1400。通胀降温压低9月加息概率至35%，警惕霍尔木兹风险波动。

14

Aug 2026

欧元/美元走高，市场加大对欧洲央行加息的押注且美联储9月加息概率回落，汇价挑战100日均线

欧元/美元欧市升至1.1550，市场押注欧洲央行9月加息25bp至2.50%提振；美国通胀降温令美联储加息概率降至35%，美元承压，关注1.1567阻力与1.1600突破。

14

Aug 2026

随着市场对日本央行加息的押注升温，英镑兑日元走弱，市场静待英国经济数据公布

英镑兑日元欧市回落，市场押注日本央行最快9月加息并可能加快紧缩，叠加干预预期支撑日元；英国数据偏弱、加息概率低。建议布局GBP/JPY偏空期权价差。

14

Aug 2026

市场将日本央行9月加息概率上调至75%，日元升幅有限且干预风险逼近

彭博称政府与日本央行立场趋同，市场对9月加息定价升温：隐含概率升至75%。若落地将创最快紧缩节奏；但日元偏平静，160干预“封顶”压制上行空间。

14

Aug 2026

随着战时能源价格飙升消退，波兰与捷克国债收益率上行，推动中东欧通胀降温并重塑利率互换交易策略

中东欧7月通胀普遍回落，波兰、捷克逆势受能源冲击。利率分化扩大：建议波捷IRS付固定对冲收益率上行，匈罗IRS收固定博降息；多头区域电力期货。

14

Aug 2026

在油价与霍尔木兹海峡风险阴云笼罩通胀与增长前景之际，卢比稳定于95.40附近

霍尔木兹复航预期牵动卢比与油价：USD/INR 95.40震荡、原油回落。渣打警示高油价或致FY27燃油补贴亏损达GDP0.5%，建议期权对冲。

14

Aug 2026

马来西亚金价回落至每克568.41马币，回调开启交易机会

马来西亚金价周五回落至MYR568.41/克，FXStreet称折算报价仅供参考。央行购金与美元、利率因素仍构成中长期支撑，回调或现期权多头布局窗口。

14

Aug 2026

由于美国通胀数据走软削弱美联储加息可能性，黄金回吐涨幅并回落至4,300美元附近

金价自4,450美元高位回调仍守4,300关口，美国通胀回落压降9月加息概率至40%。地缘风险抬升波动率，策略偏中性偏多，关注4,285支撑与4,347阻力。

14

Aug 2026

英镑/美元企稳于1.3420上方，通胀数据走软抑制市场对美联储加息的押注

英镑/美元亚洲盘低位承接反弹，但1.3500上方受阻。美国CPI/PPI走弱降温加息预期、压制美元；中东避险托底。关注零售销售，1.3422支撑未破宜逢低布局。

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