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14

Aug 2026

日元交易员严阵以待日本第二季度GDP与CPI公布，市场权衡日本央行收紧政策路径

日本二季度GDP料环比0.5%、消费支撑温和扩张；8月21日CPI或回到2%目标推升加息预期。策略：买短久期USD/JPY看跌、做多JGB并配置日经跨式对冲波动。

14

Aug 2026

随着欧洲天然气因液化天然气供应损失而趋紧、霍尔木兹海峡风险上升，改道流量提振布伦特油价

中东风险升温下油气涨势分化：布伦特获改道支撑，TTF受卡塔尔LNG减量与美货转亚洲趋紧。IEA下调需求并警示三季度缺口，建议配置TTF看涨、布伦特区间及近月对冲。

14

Aug 2026

诺德亚预计欧洲央行将通过连续三个季度各上调25个基点，将存款机制利率升至3%，并推动收益率上行

警惕欧央行利率上行再定价：Nordea预期存款利率按季度三次各25bp上调至3%，中东局势左右节奏；建议配置短端利率看跌期权、payer swap及做空Bund。

14

Aug 2026

美元/瑞郎触及100%阻力弧线，涨势动能减弱，汇价或下探0.8040

USD/CHF四小时受阻于Arc Cycle 100%阻力弧，看涨动能衰竭，周期顶部约束强化；若持续受压，或下探0.8040（0.786弧）。利差收窄支撑瑞郎；破位收盘则否定看跌。

14

Aug 2026

加拿大制造业销售超预期，降温市场对加拿大央行降息押注，支撑加元

加拿大6月制造业销售环比+0.1%逆转预期下滑，释放工业韧性信号；降息紧迫性边际减弱，支撑加元与短端利率上行，关注BAX回吐及近端CAD期权机会。

14

Aug 2026

英镑走强，市场重新定价美联储9月政策预期，美元走弱

英镑兑美元升至1.3533、DXY回落99.70，因市场重定价美联储9月“按兵不动”概率至65%。把握美元走弱：建议布局GBP/USD看涨期权及牛市价差，并以DXY跨式对冲波动。

14

Aug 2026

在黄金上涨与债券资金流入推动下，南非兰特领涨中东欧-中东-非洲新兴市场货币，美元/南非兰特逼近16.00

南非兰特本月领跑CEEMEA，兑美元即期升约2.4%、总回报2.7%；逼近16关口，受金价走强、美联储鸽派预期及外资债券231亿兰特净流入驱动，风险偏好仍主导。

14

Aug 2026

金价自周内低点反弹，美元走软与疲弱美国数据削弱美联储加息预期

金价自周内低点4311美元反弹至4372美元，受美元走弱及美联储9月加息预期降温支撑；零售与就业数据偏弱强化增长放缓，关注4386阻力与4000支撑。

14

Aug 2026

欧洲股市收盘持平，霍尔木兹袭击事件和美国对无人机加征关税的影响抵消美国通胀放缓利好

欧洲股市收盘横盘：霍尔木兹遇袭及美对伊“史无前例”制裁、无人机关税升温对冲通胀回落利好；油价走强、美元走弱，期权对冲需求升温。

14

Aug 2026

中国7月人民币贷款转为净偿还，助长市场押注人民币走弱并引发更广泛的风险规避交易

信贷骤转惊雷：7月新增人民币贷款由1.61万亿元降至-3400亿元，净偿还凸显融资需求走弱；市场聚焦广义社融与政策宽松验证，风险资产承压。

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