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Live Updates

5

May 2026

美国新屋销售按月上升，2月从58.7万套增至63.5万套，未出现逆转

美国2月新屋销售跳升至63.5万套，房市韧性叠加就业强劲，强化“高利率更久”。交易员可瞄准国债、建商ETF与工业金属期权，同时谨慎REIT并用看跌期权对冲。

5

May 2026

艾略特波浪分析显示，华特迪士尼正接近关键转折点，或有望蓄势上冲

迪士尼月周线艾略特波浪指（II）浪调整或近尾声：守稳78.85美元，结构转强，或挑战120阻力与新高；可考虑2026年期权/牛市价差布局。

5

May 2026

3月，美国新屋销售按月升至68.2万套，优于预期的66.8万套

美国3月新屋销售跳升至68.2万套超预期，叠加CPI顽固与就业强劲，美联储更偏鹰、夏季降息概率降。关注卖9月SOFR、买TLT认沽及VIX认购对冲。

5

May 2026

3月，美国JOLTS职位空缺达686.6万个，高于预期的683万个

美国3月JOLTS职位空缺686.6万略超预期，劳市韧性令美联储更难降息，“高利率更久”叙事强化。7月降息概率跌破25%，CPI与股市波动成焦点。

5

May 2026

4月，美国ISM服务业支付价格指数保持稳定，维持在70.7

ISM服务业投入价格4月仍卡在70.7高位，通胀黏性不退！美联储或被迫“高利率更久”，降息梦碎；SOFR隐含利率上行，美元看涨、股市宜用保护性Put对冲。

5

May 2026

4月美国ISM服务业PMI报53.6，略低于预估的53.7

美国4月ISM服务业PMI报53.6略逊预期，扩张但动能转弱。利率交易押注夏季降息升温，期权更活；股市波动或放大，美元续承压。

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