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5

May 2026

澳元因澳洲联储将利率上调至4.35%但暗示将依据数据暂停加息而走软，涨幅受限

澳洲央行加息25bp至4.35%后转趋数据依赖停顿；核心通胀恐拖到2027回落。市场仍押再升至4.70%。澳元转弱，期权隐波或低估波动风险。

5

May 2026

丰业银行策略师指出，在阻力位压制下美元/加元仍偏空，美元走软支撑加元走强

美元走软、风险偏好回升推高加元，USD/CAD技术转弱。丰业下调公允价值至1.3424，阻力1.3630、支撑1.3520/1.35；可布局看跌期权或短空。

5

May 2026

美国RealClearMarkets/TIPP月度经济乐观指数优于预期，5月报42.6，高于预期的42

【没那么糟=可收租？】美国TIPP经济乐观指数5月升至42.6超预期但仍低于50，情绪偏悲观却降速放缓；VIX约18可卖虚值认沽，利率偏鹰、核心PCE黏着，偏区间策略如铁鹰。

5

May 2026

4月，美国ISM服务业PMI回落至53.6，服务业动能走弱导致不及市场预期

美国4月ISM服务业放缓、订单跳水至扩张边缘，通胀仍高。增长弱令Fed难降息：美元区间震荡；股市需防回撤，黄金或加剧波动。

5

May 2026

美国3月新屋销售超预期，按月升至68.2万户，高于预估的66.8万户

美国3月新屋销售升至68.2万套，超预期1.4万套！经济韧性强、通胀恐难快降，降息或推迟；利率高位更久利好卖国债Put、偏多建商ETF。

5

May 2026

3月美国新屋销量月度录得62.8万套，低于预期的66.8万套

美国3月新屋销量62.8万套低于预期，利率7.2%压需求，或成经济降温领先信号。布局做空建商、押注降息概率升，并用VIX看涨期权对冲波动。

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