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19

May 2026

美国国债收益率攀升，油价驱动的通胀担忧推高期限溢价，挑战美联储降息前景

美债收益率再飙！30年期冲5.195%、创2007年来高位；通胀与中东推油价，降息预期降温、期限溢价与赤字忧虑升温，62%经理料一年内破6%。

19

May 2026

阿联酋退出欧佩克推高供应，交易员严阵以待区域原油“库存堆积”，油价承压

阿联酋“脱OPEC”成真：产量升破380万桶/日，联盟约束力松动，油价长期承压。WTI守不住72美元，跌破70恐见65；期权对冲、关注布伦特-WTI价差。

19

May 2026

欧元兑加元走软，油价飙升抵消加拿大通胀放缓影响，焦点转向欧元区HICP

油价飙升撑加元，EUR/CAD跌近两周低位1.5970！加拿大CPI与核心通胀降温或限BoC动作；焦点转向欧元区通胀，市场押注ECB年底前至少两次加息。

19

May 2026

新西兰GDT价格指数升势放缓，中国需求转弱拖累纽元

GDT指数仅升0.6%逊前值1.5%，反弹动能降温。中国全脂奶粉采购环比跌3%、新西兰产量同比增1.2%，偏空升温；建议减多，用牛奶期货看跌期权与纽元对冲。

19

May 2026

道明证券认为，在加拿大通胀降温、就业数据走弱之际，美元/加元在1.37附近获得支撑

通胀降温+就业转弱，加元承压！TD Securities料USD/CAD 2026年Q2续获支撑逼近1.37；待加拿大数据回暖及USMCA风险降温，H2才望更持续回落。

19

May 2026

英镑在英国数据公布前小幅走低，GBP/USD 区间风险与期权成焦点

英镑/美元北美时段跌0.1%仍跑赢多数G10，市场紧盯周三CPI、周四PMI、周五零售。利率预期转鸽压制，但政治表态与对冲成本下降撑情绪，短线或维持1.3350-1.3450区间交易。

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