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26

Aug 2026

ABN AMRO表示，财政担忧与更高风险溢价拖累美元走低，欧元走强

美元风向突变：财政赤字与债务扩张推升风险溢价，压制美元并带动欧元走强。建议配置1-3个月EUR/USD近平值看涨期权，卖空美元并关注美债期货看跌期权。

26

Aug 2026

美国非国防耐用品订单大幅跃升，挑战美联储降息预期并提振美元前景

剔除国防的美国7月耐用品订单升至1.3%，资本开支韧性超预期，强化“高利率更久”定价；提示9月降息空间受限，利多美元与工业板块期权策略。

26

Aug 2026

美国第二季度PCE通胀意外上行，引发市场对美联储更趋鹰派的预期，施压美债与成长股

美国二季度PCE环比升5.3%超预期0.2个百分点，通胀粘性强化。市场或重估降息路径：短端收益率上行、曲线倒挂加深，科技股承压，美元走强。

26

Aug 2026

美国耐用品订单超预期，降息押注降温推动美债收益率与美元走强

美国7月耐用品订单环比增1.1%超预期，制造业与资本开支韧性凸显；或压降激进降息定价，推升短端美债收益率与美元，衍生品配置需前瞻调整。

26

Aug 2026

美国7月核心PCE维持在3.3%，支撑市场对美联储政策保持稳定的预期

美国7月核心PCE同比3.3%持平并符合预期，通胀定价趋稳。市场风险溢价回落，短端隐含波动率或受压；关注卖波动率、区间期权及利率衍生品窄幅交易配置。

26

Aug 2026

美国国债收益率走低抑制波动性，利好套息交易；澳元受CPI走高推动上涨

贝森特干预后长端美债收益率下行、跨资产波动率回落，油价走软提振风险偏好。焦点转向PCE、7年期国债拍卖及杰克逊霍尔；美元指数受限回落，套息交易与澳元看涨期权受益。

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