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26

Jun 2026

欧元/美元反弹：油价下挫缓解欧元区压力，然美联储与欧洲央行政策分化令下行趋势仍存

油价大幅回落缓解欧元区输入性通胀，短线托底欧元/美元反弹；但欧央行紧缩趋缓、增长疲弱叠加美联储高利率预期，汇价中期下行格局未改。

26

Jun 2026

美元涨势暂歇：风险偏好回升，但美联储鹰派立场与政策分化支撑美元

美元短线回调源于风险偏好回升，但通胀与就业韧性令美联储偏鹰预期未退。警惕数据驱动波动率上行：回调或成DXY逢低配置窗口。

26

Jun 2026

意大利10年期国债拍卖收益率降至3.63%，在押注欧洲央行降息背景下提振财政部融资前景

意大利10年期国债拍卖收益率降至3.63%，融资成本下行、需求强劲；通胀回落强化ECB降息预期，风险溢价与CDS利差收窄，关注BTP、银行股及波动率交易机会。

26

Jun 2026

意大利五年期国债拍卖收益率下滑，BTP-德债利差收窄，提振风险偏好

意大利5年期国债拍卖收益率降至3.03%，中期融资成本下行、定价压力缓解；利差收窄至130bp提振风险偏好，欧元走强，股指与卖波动策略或迎机会。

26

Jun 2026

意大利10年期国债收益率降至1.63%，BTP-Bund利差收窄，提振欧元与股市

意大利10年期国债拍卖收益率降至1.63%，BTP-Bund利差收窄至约115bp，融资成本骤降提振欧股与欧元：市场押注风险溢价重估延续。

26

Jun 2026

墨西哥央行维持基准利率于6.50%，荷兰合作银行预计比索区间震荡、美元/墨西哥比索年末料至17.6

墨西哥央行维持6.50%利率并指引延续，USD/MXN缺乏催化或夏季区间。隐波降至11.5%利于卖权收息，利差支撑比索套息；USMCA年度审查风险溢价有限。

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