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26

Jun 2026

道指突破52,000点，防御性板块领涨；受美联储鹰派立场及霍尔木兹风险影响，科技股走弱

道指周涨逾1%逼近52,300点，资金转向医疗等防御板块；美联储转鹰、PCE回升及霍尔木兹风险推升油价与波动率，宜短多严控止损并对冲科技回撤。

26

Jun 2026

卡什卡里警示服务业通胀风险美联储权衡2026年加息并取消前瞻指引

通胀黏性再成焦点：卡什卡利警示服务通胀顽固，拟重置FOMC声明、2026或再加息并保持限制性立场；就业韧性支撑“高利率更久”，美元与利率波动交易机会凸显。

26

Jun 2026

中东供应恢复令WTI维持在70美元下方，但霍尔木兹海峡风险仍使波动性成为市场焦点

WTI跌破70美元创低，市场押注中东供应回升及霍尔木兹通航改善；但EIA库存低于均值、OVX偏低，风险重估或触发油价反弹上冲。

26

Jun 2026

特朗普称停火遭违反，引发市场转向避险；油价反弹，金价逼近4,100美元关口

特朗普称伊朗违反停火、霍尔木兹无人机袭击引爆地缘风险，市场转向“风险规避”再定价：油价反弹看涨，黄金与避险货币走强，VIX上行促期权对冲。

26

Jun 2026

欧元/美元小幅走高，但在美联储谨慎立场与霍尔木兹海峡风险持续之际，料将录得连续第二周下跌

警惕：地缘冲突与美联储偏鹰共振，美元韧性抬升，EUR/USD虽反弹仍料周线续跌；ECB宽松预期强化政策分化，建议期权布局下行至1.0600。

26

Jun 2026

英镑随美元走软小幅走高，但英国党魁竞选及市场对英央行利率预期重新定价令前景承压

英镑兑美元小幅反弹但周线仍偏弱；英国政局更迭与英银加息预期下调削弱支撑。技术面受均线压制，非农或提振美元，GBP/USD下行风险上升。

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