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1

Jul 2026

白银因美元走软反弹，但美联储鹰派立场令XAG/USD承压

美国数据强劲但美元回撤推升白银反弹至59.7美元；然月内仍跌近20%。美联储偏鹰叠加净空增持，60–63美元或成“诱多”抛空窗口。

30

Jun 2026

加拿大4月GDP超预期，强化市场对加拿大央行维持利率不变的预期，并支撑加元

加拿大4月GDP环比增0.5%超预期，商品生产拉动、油气采矿领涨；央行短期降息概率下调，加元或走强，建议偏多资源股并以指数看跌期权对冲。

30

Jun 2026

克利夫兰联储行长哈马克：美国经济韧性犹存，核心通胀顽固不下仍保留加息选项

哈马克称经济韧性与就业稳健支撑高利率延续，但核心通胀顽固或促再加息；美联储情绪转鹰压低降息预期，SOFR与股市波动率或再上行。

30

Jun 2026

哥伦比亚5月失业率降至8%，加大市场对货币政策收紧及比索走强的押注

哥伦比亚5月失业率降至8%凸显经济回暖，或强化央行鹰派预期、推升短端利率；比索料走强，USD/COP或回落至3850，股市及COLCAP期权受益。

30

Jun 2026

道明证券预计6月美国非农就业新增8万人，招聘降温或促使美联储维持利率不变

警惕就业“急刹车”：TD预计美国6月非农仅增8万、失业率降至4.2%，劳动力市场回归保本；美联储料继续观望，美元承压、股市偏防御，波动率或上行。

30

Jun 2026

随着油价敏感性减弱，市场预期欧洲央行将维持鹰派立场；7月加息概率下降，但后续仍可能进一步加息

油价与地缘政治扰动下，欧洲央行料维持偏鹰：核心通胀2.8%压制鸽转；7月加息概率降但“至少再加一次”叙事延续，短端波动与欧元获支撑。

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