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1

Jul 2026

随着套利交易升温、165附近干预风险上升，日元逼近1986年低位

日元徘徊1986年以来低位，利差与套息压制难改。14万手净空仓拥挤叠加清淡流动性，165或成干预触发点；警惕急反转，宜买波动率并以看跌期权对冲。

1

Jul 2026

ING警告称英国通胀风险仍存，市场上调对英国央行终端利率的定价导致英镑利率保持敏感

ING称英镑利率定价仍以通胀与央行反应为核心、主权风险次之；油价冲击曾触发紧缩重定价。当前终端利率约4%，若再现近期财政刺激或推升前端与波动率。

1

Jul 2026

北欧银行：欧元区通胀回落削弱欧洲央行7月加息概率，市场定价长期按兵不动

欧元区6月通胀不及预期，Nordea称ECB 7月再加息概率下行；但核心通胀粘性与二轮效应未明，过早转鸽存沟通风险。市场紧缩定价已退，期权波动策略或更优。

1

Jul 2026

巴西6月制造业PMI重返扩张区间，提振Ibovespa指数与雷亚尔前景，令降息押注更趋复杂

巴西6月制造业PMI跃升至50.8重返扩张区间，经济或提前触底。该利多或催化Ibovespa与雷亚尔修复，同时削弱三季度降息预期、重塑利率曲线定价。

1

Jul 2026

华侨银行指出，在沃什人选动向、美国非农就业数据及欧洲央行谨慎立场影响政策分化之际，美元温和上行空间仍存

OCBC提示美元温和上行：聚焦沃什辛特拉表态与非农。JOLTS稳固支撑美联储偏鹰，欧元区通胀降温缓解欧央行再收紧压力；建议以EUR/USD看跌期权把握政策分化。

1

Jul 2026

汇丰维持对美国股市的“超配”评级，人工智能驱动的盈利增长正向大型科技股以外领域扩散

汇丰称AI驱动盈利扩散缓解美股高估忧虑，标普500 2026年盈利或增23%；维持美股超配、美元偏多，建议优质债券与黄金分散，并借回调与低VIX布局期权。

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