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30

Aug 2026

COT极端水平预示澳元、天然气及贵金属持仓可能出现反转

COT极值揭示澳元/天然气/钯金商业占比逼近区间顶部，投机空头仍拥挤；欧元、加元高位回补。黄金白银指数触零且多头过度，修正风险升温；美元涨势边际衰竭。

29

Aug 2026

韩国央行上调基准利率至3.0%，在韩元走强背景下美元/韩元汇率进入盘整阶段

韩国央行再加息25bp至3.0%，点阵图中位数指向再升至3.25%可能。韩元走强后USD/KRW料1360-1400整固，策略可用铁鹰、逢1400买跌或日历价差。

29

Aug 2026

在零售需求保持强劲且通胀率维持在4.4%的背景下，越南8月出口预计增长27%

出口同比或跃升27%并由电子领跑，越南三季度动能可期；零售与旅游支出韧性支撑内需，通胀约4.4%促利率高位延续，衍生品布局聚焦VND与股指期货。

29

Aug 2026

韩国央行暗示收紧步伐放缓，韩元升势消退、美元兑韩元转入区间盘整

韩国央行两连加息至3.0%并前置紧缩，六个月利率中位3.25%示仍有加息空间；但后续或放缓并暂停。韩元升值12%后趋盘整，USD/KRW料1,360-1,400区间震荡。

29

Aug 2026

菲律宾央行将政策利率上调至5.0%，比索表现落后于东盟同业，紧缩倾向仍在延续

菲律宾央行加息至5%稳汇控通胀，3Q26比索独跌0.8%显著跑输。市场押注或再加息，建议以短期期权、远期及掉期付固定布局波动与收益率上行。

29

Aug 2026

星展银行预计马来西亚国家银行将把隔夜政策利率维持在2.75%，通胀令货币政策保持中性

【押注落空？】星展料BNM9月3日维持OPR2.75%不变；7月通胀1.8%温和且增长约5%，收紧动力弱。建议收固定掉期、做多MGS期货。

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