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16

Jul 2026

在区间震荡主导下美元/日元小幅走低；汇价守住21日均线以上，上行偏向仍存

美元/日元窄幅回落，短线或固守161.70–162.30；未来1-3周维持160.60–163.00震荡。关键钩子：守住21日EMA约161.00，仍具上行期权策略价值。

16

Jul 2026

道明证券指出：6月零售销售持平、PPI走软，美元面临下行风险

TD Securities 料6月零售零增、PPI转负，消费动能降温或拖累美元；核心PCE温和上修，美联储7月料按兵不动，建议多欧元、空美元、做多美债对冲。

16

Jul 2026

英镑/美元自两个月高位回落，油价与地缘政治因素提振美元；英国财政立场支撑英镑

英镑/美元自1.3560两月高位回落至1.3525，美元受能源通胀与避险支撑。英国政局趋稳、财政纪律预期托底。技术面超买但趋势偏多，建议跌破1.3500逢低布局。

16

Jul 2026

受霍尔木兹海峡中断担忧及华盛顿对伊朗立场影响，WTI徘徊于79美元附近，波动性预期上升

WTI欧盘回落至79美元附近但仍逼近高点，霍尔木兹海峡供给中断与美伊升级推升风险溢价；建议布局短期限外看涨/牛市价差及跨式，捕捉波动扩张。

16

Jul 2026

西班牙30年期国债收益率升至4.286%，利差扩大推升长期融资成本

西班牙30年期国债拍卖收益率升至4.286%，较前次抬升24.8bp，长期融资成本上行信号强烈。外围国债风险溢价或扩张，利差交易与CDS对冲机会浮现。

16

Jul 2026

在油价推升通胀风险之际，美元走强且加息预期升温，金价跌破4,050美元

金价欧盘跌至4,025美元，美元受偏紧政策预期支撑；PPI回落仅缓解短期压力。油价高位推升通胀与加息定价，技术偏空，关注4,000失守风险。

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