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16

Jul 2026

美国初请失业金人数四周均值降至214,250人，强化市场对美联储利率波动的预期

美国初请四周均值降至214.25K，劳动力韧性凸显，或触发美联储路径再定价与利率波动：可空短端利率期货、卖虚值标普看跌、做多美元并偏空黄金。

16

Jul 2026

美国初请失业金人数低于预期，凸显劳动力市场韧性，强化利率“更高更久”预期

美国初请失业金20.8万低于预期21.7万，凸显劳动力市场韧性，“更久维持高利率”预期升温；美债收益率、美元趋强，股市波动回升，对冲策略受关注。

16

Jul 2026

美元在接近一个月低位附近企稳，通胀降温促使市场调整对美联储利率路径的预期

美元指数逼近104企稳：PPI、CPI偏软压制联邦基金期货，市场重估降息预期。机构认为回调过度，建议布局美元反弹，买入虚值短久期看涨期权，严控波动风险敞口。

16

Jul 2026

加拿大央行在2.25%维持利率不变，政策立场均衡抑制加元波动；道明银行预计美元/加元将跌破1.40

加拿大央行维持2.25%利率并调整前瞻指引，基调偏中性略鸽；加元短期料盘整、波动率下行。待数据企稳，USD/CAD或跌破1.40，衍生品可布局看跌。

16

Jul 2026

美元/加元企稳，因美国通胀回落及加拿大央行按兵不动令市场降温加息预期

美通胀走软叠加加央行按兵不动，美元/加元进入整固。若未来12个月50bp加息预期回撤，加元或贬1.5%-2%；期权隐波低位，宜布局美元/加元看涨。

16

Jul 2026

欧元回落至1.1460附近，因油价推动的通胀担忧令美元企稳，市场静待美国零售销售数据公布

欧元兑美元回落至1.1460，美元指数升至100.57。中东紧张推升油价与通胀预期，支撑美元。关注美国零售销售，建议用期权、跨式对冲并捕捉波动。

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