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17

Jul 2026

欧元区核心通胀率稳定在2.4%，令市场对欧洲央行降息押注维持渐进路径

欧元区6月核心HICP同比持平2.4%并符合预期，基础通胀韧性削弱激进降息押注。市场波动或回落，关注Euribor期货、卖Bund期权及欧元、股指期权theta策略。

17

Jul 2026

欧元区6月核心HICP同比持平于0.2%，进一步强化欧洲央行渐进式宽松预期

欧元区6月核心调和HICP环比持平0.2%，潜在通胀压力稳定；市场押注欧央行渐进降息，隐含波动率或收缩。关注期权卖方策略、曲线陡峭化及欧元下行风险。

17

Jul 2026

WTI原油维持在79美元附近，市场关注美伊紧张局势及关键技术位

WTI连续四日高位盘整，报79美元附近；美伊地缘风险及霍尔木兹通行成关键催化。技术面偏区间震荡：上破80看82.48/87.25，下方支撑77.30/76.59。

17

Jul 2026

富国银行预计美联储将维持利率不变直至2027年，受此影响美国国债收益率曲线温和牛市陡峭化

富国银行预计美联储基金利率3.50%–3.75%维持至2027年末，10年期美债收益率2026年近4.35%、2027年回落4.30%；建议配置牛市陡峭化，并以期权对冲通胀冲击风险。

17

Jul 2026

在美元走强和油价上涨支撑美联储“更高更久”预期之际，金价持续承压于4,000美元下方

黄金冲击4000美元受阻，美元走强叠加油价周涨逾10%推升能源通胀预期，市场押注美联储更久高利率且12月前再加息概率75%；技术面仍偏空。

17

Jul 2026

布伦特原油瞄准首次收于85美元上方，中东紧张局势威胁红海航运通道

布伦特油价逼近85美元并或月余首度站稳；中东地缘风险、红海航运扰动推升通胀粘性与降息预期重定价。建议做多波动率，跨式期权及牛市价差对冲股市回撤风险。

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