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18

Jul 2026

中国房地产下行进入第五年：一线市场企稳，低线城市低迷延续

房地产下行五周年在即：房价“L形”叠加“K形”分化，投资与新开工大幅下滑。策略建议：做空工业金属、做多绿科EV期权，并以USD/CNH及区域房企期权对冲。

18

Jul 2026

受美伊紧张局势推升美元，墨西哥比索走弱；市场关注墨西哥经济数据及美联储政策前景

美伊紧张与油价上行推升避险美元，墨西哥比索回落0.65%，USD/MXN反弹至17.53。关注墨西哥数据与美联储会议前美方就业、PMI；技术阻力17.54/18.12。

18

Jul 2026

美元/日元持稳，片山日元警告影响消退，散户交易者转向日元期权

财务大臣强硬口头挺日元后，美元/日元仍近乎持平，显示警告边际效应递减；但本土零售情绪显著转向做多日元，隐含波动回落下可布局美元/日元看跌期权。

18

Jul 2026

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示：日元净空头小幅收窄，投机客仍面临潜在“轧空”风险

警惕日元“空头挤压”：CFTC显示JPY非商业净持仓由-123.8k收窄至-122.7k，偏空仍重；在BoJ潜在转向下，建议以低成本虚值看涨期权对冲上行风险。

18

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：在高产量及需求担忧压力下，原油投机者削减净多头持仓

CFTC显示原油投机净多头降至62.7K（前值75.7K），资金加速减仓。在高产量与需求忧虑共振下，油价下行压力抬升，宜以保护性看跌期权或熊市看涨价差防御。

18

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：随着投机者削减看空押注，英镑净空头头寸收窄

CFTC最新持仓揭示转势信号：英镑非商业净持仓由£-87.9k收窄至£-71.3k，净空头敞口下降，反映空头回补与新增多头建仓并存。

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