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20

Jul 2026

新西兰6月年度贸易逆差扩大，加剧纽元及利率前景压力

新西兰6月年度贸易逆差扩大至-37.4亿纽元，同比缺口增3.8亿；出口不及进口或压制NZD。策略：做空NZD、买入NZD/USD看跌期权，并布局RBNZ降息预期。

19

Jul 2026

新西兰6月进口下滑，加重纽元承压并推升市场对新西兰央行降息的押注

新西兰6月进口微降至80.7亿美元，折射内需边际走弱。降息预期升温或压制纽元，策略关注NZD/USD看跌期权、接收固定掉期，并跟踪贸易差额压力。

19

Jul 2026

新西兰6月出口降至80.9亿纽元，纽元下行风险加剧令交易员承压

新西兰6月出口降至80.9亿纽元，环比收缩近9%，折射外需降温与中国需求疲弱；若RBNZ转鸽，纽元或承压，NZD/USD看跌期权布局可期。

19

Jul 2026

标普500指数反弹受挫：科技股领涨动能减弱，中东局势升级担忧升温

盘前抛压致ES逼近5470后快速反弹，但动能衰竭、广度未转多，趋势跟进不足。半导体偏弱、防御承接。中东升级风险或未充分定价，警惕波动。

18

Jul 2026

美元/离岸人民币在6.77附近盘整，UOB设定波动区间，6.7820下方维持下行偏向

低流动性下USD/CNH围绕6.77窄幅盘整，日内涨0.07%。UOB提示短线区间6.7670–6.7780，6.7820阻力守稳则偏空看6.7600，突破或打开中期上行空间。

18

Jul 2026

韩国央行转向鹰派促使星展银行预计，到2026年底政策利率将升至3.25%

韩国央行7月首度加息至2.75%释放鹰派信号。DBS上调2H26累计加息至75bp，政策利率或达3.25%。关注短端上行、曲线趋平、做空KTB、做多KRW及互换付固定对冲通胀。

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