Live Updates

21

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎回升至0.8100，风险偏好改善及看涨动能增强背景下瑞郎走弱

USD/CHF受风险偏好回升推动重返0.8100，技术结构转强、RSI上行；SNB鸽派与利差支撑多头，关注0.8172/0.8250，策略倾向买入虚值看涨期权。

21

Jul 2026

马来西亚第二季度GDP超预期，林吉特维持区间震荡；利率保持不变，油气与AI相关出口成焦点

马来西亚二季度GDP预估同比增5.8%超预期，上半年5.6%强于政府目标；BNM料维持2.75%。USD/MYR区间4.05-4.10，关注卖短期权、接收互换及油价联动对冲。

21

Jul 2026

美元/新元维持窄幅震荡，大华银行提示汇价或运行于1.2900–1.2930区间，跌破1.2860存破位风险

钩子：USD/SGD 低波动“闷盘”暗藏突破风险。UOB 指短线维持 1.2900–1.2930 区间，中期关注 1.2860 失守下探 1.2805；期权宜偏区间卖方并备看跌。

21

Jul 2026

墨西哥比索走强：风险偏好回升抵消中东紧张局势影响，经济增长与《美墨加协定》（USMCA）风险仍在逼近

墨西哥比索逆势走强推低USD/MXN至17.43，风险偏好支撑但DXY走高显分化；增长预期下修、USMCA审查及地缘冲突升温，建议区间期权与买波动率对冲。

21

Jul 2026

美元小幅走高，受中东紧张局势推动美债收益率走强影响，油价上扬、金价承压

地缘冲突升温叠加美债收益率逼近4.60%，DXY上行至101；油价走强重燃通胀预期、金价承压。期权策略：做多美元与原油、配置黄金保护性对冲，关注政策分化与干预风险。

21

Jul 2026

霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势引发原油震荡，特朗普承诺压低战争溢价并推升波动率

原油欧盘急挫后因特朗普报复表态重计“战争溢价”反弹，地缘扰动叠加SPR低位支撑偏多；建议80-81美元逢低做多看涨期权，目标84-85。

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