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21

Jul 2026

伊朗局势降温预期削弱避险需求，美股指期货走高；财报季成市场焦点

外交降温预期提振美股期货、避险需求回落；然收益率与油价上行仍压制风险偏好。建议长跨式、纳指保护性看跌及VIX看涨对冲，并以铁鹰/日历价差把握财报波动率坍塌。

21

Jul 2026

美元走软抵消美联储鹰派预期及中东风险，金价维持在一周高位附近

黄金欧盘贴近周高但受制4,100美元：美元走软难敌能源通胀与地缘冲突推升加息预期，FedWatch定价年内加息83%；技术改善仍遇均线压制，建议区间谨慎交易。

21

Jul 2026

印度卢比逼近历史低位，印度央行加大干预力度，资金流入抵消油价冲击

原油站上90美元，卢比再逼历史低位96.9550。RBI加码在岸/离岸干预并引入逾200亿美元外资，压制波动；建议转向卖波策略与跨资产对冲。

21

Jul 2026

美元/加元自一周高位回落，油价支撑加元，且美联储与加拿大央行政策分化延续

USD/CAD回吐并逼近1.4000支撑，美元走软叠加油价坚挺支撑加元；但美联储偏鹰、加央行偏鸽及关税风险限制下行。建议衍生品以区间与期权策略捕捉波动。

21

Jul 2026

霍尔木兹海峡受扰促使沙特原油经曼德海峡改道运输，红海航运风险加剧

霍尔木兹受扰致中东原油改道红海—曼德海峡，400万桶/日沙特外运暴露冲突风险；运价、油价或短期脉冲上行。策略：做多波动、区间交易。

21

Jul 2026

美元/日元接近162.60，伊朗停火谈判缓解美元买盘，日本CPI数据临近

美元/日元连涨至162.60，但中东停火预期削弱避险美元；日本核心CPI或回升引发加息预期，并存干预风险，建议期权布局逢高回撤。

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