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31

Jul 2026

日元兑主要货币在干预推动下大幅上涨，疲弱美国数据拖累美元；英镑与欧元走强

疑似官方干预致美元/日元急挫破158，美元指数创阶段最大跌幅；美GDP与核心PCE走弱重塑降息预期。策略聚焦：日元看跌期权、利率多头、黄金长久期看涨。

31

Jul 2026

日元在疑似日本财务省入市干预下大幅走强；日本央行维持利率不变并警示通胀风险

日元纽约时段急升，美元/日元163跌至158引发财务省疑似干预猜测；日银利率维持1.00%，强调汇率推升通胀风险，通胀预测微调并释放温和收紧信号。

31

Jul 2026

英国央行维持基准利率在3.75%不变，贝利淡化加息可能性；市场重新定价9月加息预期

英国央行按兵不动维持3.75%，贝利偏鸽令9月加息预期骤降。机构建议做多SONIA、配置两年期Gilt看涨，并以GBP/USD看跌对冲，叠加布油虚值看涨防尾部通胀。

31

Jul 2026

美元指数形成双顶，欧元/美元与英镑/美元上破走高；黄金三角形整理，数字货币处于关键抉择点

外汇与贵金属进入关键拐点：美元指数疑似双顶，欧元、英镑走强；日元交叉反弹，USD/CAD 逼近1.40。黄金三角收敛待突破，加密临抉择。

31

Jul 2026

科技股领涨推动美股反弹，微软大涨抵消30年期美债收益率逼近5.24%对标普500指数的压制

美股周四强弹，标普涨1.66%、纳指涨2.78%；微软AI驱动云指引超预期，市值单日飙增4500亿美元创纪录。30年美债收益率逼近5.24%重估资本成本，降息预期更趋复杂。

31

Jul 2026

挪威6月信贷增速放缓至4.4%，强化市场对挪威央行降息的预期

挪威C2信贷指标6月降至4.4%（前值4.5%），确认信贷增速边际放缓。紧缩效应显现，降息预期升温；利率互换、FRA与NOK对冲及期权策略或受益。

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