by VT Markets
Jul 31, 2026
纽约时段日元走强，美元/日元自163.00下挫至158.00后反弹；在更广泛美元走弱的背景下，市场将该走势解读为日本财务省可能入市干预的结果。随后，日本银行将关键政策利率维持在1.00%不变；该决定在同时发布最新《经济活动与物价展望报告》的会议上以8比1的票数通过。
在本次展望中，日本银行再次强调通胀上行风险；措辞上更加强调外汇走势作为推动通胀上行压力的来源，并提及AI需求为需要关注的领域。对2026财年全国核心CPI的预测从2.8%下修至2.5%，同时将2027财年预测从2.3%上修至2.4%，显示通胀压力仍在政策视野之内。政策沟通释放进一步收紧信号，但未暗示较当前“每六个月一次”的节奏更快，从而使政策环境整体维持不变；与此同时，财务省可能不止一次入市干预仍是市场持续关注的重要变量。
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