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29

Sep 2026

英镑/日元走低，日元干预传闻升温，英镑受预算与增长逆风拖累

日元受潜在外汇干预预期支撑，GBP/JPY跌至208附近逼近207。英镑受英国增长放缓与预算事件风险拖累；技术偏空，期权建议看跌至205。

29

Sep 2026

美国实际收益率飙升，市场计入美联储进一步收紧预期，通胀预期保持稳定

美债实际收益率曲线陡升，市场押注额外加息约75bp而非通胀再燃；盈亏平衡与通胀互换持稳。建议做空国债期货、买长久期看跌，配合payer价差及互换pay-fixed捕捉重定价。

29

Sep 2026

金价在美债收益率与美元走强压制下于大跌4%后企稳

暴跌后黄金企稳反弹至4,157美元，但美债收益率创高、美元偏强及技术面疲弱压制上行。关注4,100/4,000支撑与密集数据，期权偏空并加强地缘对冲。

29

Sep 2026

受国债收益率上升、原油市场现货溢价扩大及美联储与欧洲央行政策分化加剧影响，市场对利率走势的预期趋于明确，美元走强

美债收益率再上行叠加中东风险推升油价回溢与二轮通胀，美元走强、FOMC更鹰；市场上调加息路径，建议买10年期美债看跌、做空欧元并用布伦特牛市价差。

29

Sep 2026

在美债收益率高企及美联储加息预期推升美元之际，欧元逼近年内低点

美元强势与美债收益率高企压制欧元，EUR/USD逼近1.1324年内低点，9月或跌2.4%。欧元区信心走弱、ECB再定价滞后；建议做空、买入看跌与跨式对冲。

29

Sep 2026

英镑/美元下挫，艾略特波浪信号指向进一步下行，目标看向1.3150–1.3000区间

GBP/USD 跌破看跌通道下轨，艾略特波浪指向第三浪加速，目标 1.3150–1.3000；警惕第四浪修正反弹。策略：逢反弹做空/买 Put 或熊市价差；阻力 1.3270–1.3360。

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