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Live Updates

3

Sep 2026

美国ISM服务业新订单激增，推升美债收益率并助长美元押注，市场重估美联储政策路径

ISM服务业新订单指数8月升至60.9，需求动能显著修复，强化服务业韧性与经济扩张预期；美债收益率或上行、美元偏强，关注做空国债及周期板块机会。

3

Sep 2026

在干预传闻发酵之际美元走弱，CTA在美国非农就业数据公布前转为增持贵金属

汇率干预预期叠加沃勒偏鸽压低美元与利率，CTA贵金属转多推升金银钯。非农与通胀将成催化，期权把握波动，美元贬值担忧支撑金价。

3

Sep 2026

沃勒暗示若CPI降温，9月或维持利率不变；市场严阵以待波动，美元指数走弱

沃勒称8月CPI若续降，9月或按兵不动；若偏热不排除再加息，政策取决短期通胀。美元指数跌至99，期权与利率期货或迎二元波动交易机会。

3

Sep 2026

美国第二季度非农劳动生产率符合预期，市场对美联储利率前景趋于稳定，波动率押注出现转向

美国二季度非农生产率年化升1.4%持平预期、回归长期均值；通胀与美联储政策意外风险下降。关注SOFR期权卖波动、标普铁鹰及短期限美元看跌配置。

3

Sep 2026

墨西哥8月消费者信心回升，提振比索前景并强化墨西哥央行降息谨慎立场

墨西哥8月消费者信心升至46.1并超预期，内需韧性增强；或缓解央行激进降息压力并利多比索。关注USD/MXN做空、MXN看涨期权及EWW看涨机会。

3

Sep 2026

在美元走软与收益率下行抵消加息忧虑之际，黄金反弹并逼近4,500美元

金价跌破4,300美元后受美元走软与美债收益率回落推动反弹至4,488美元；市场聚焦ISM与非农及9月加息预期，建议期权区间策略并强化对冲。

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