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3

Aug 2026

纽约梅隆银行预计，面对油价上涨及美元走强的双重逆风，印度央行将维持基准利率在5.25%不变

聚焦RBI：BNY料政策利率5.25%按兵不动，通胀黏性与增长放缓并存；卢比受油价与强美元压制但干预限上行，策略转向卖波动、区间交易，偏好久期与套息。

3

Aug 2026

新加坡制造业PMI小幅升至51.4，显示扩张态势稳健并支撑市场对新元的乐观预期

新加坡7月制造业PMI升至51.4续处扩张区间，工业景气温和改善。电子需求回暖或支撑SGD与股指衍生品多头，但须防中国需求与美债利率扰动。

3

Aug 2026

巴西制造业PMI跌入收缩区间，加剧对雷亚尔、股市及利率预期的压力

巴西7月制造业PMI骤降至47.5重返收缩区间，工厂景气明显走弱；雷亚尔与Ibovespa恐承压、波动率抬升，市场或重估增长与货币政策路径。

3

Aug 2026

美元在8月伊始走弱，美联储指引收敛及美日干预因素令美元承压

美元7月底急挫后8月续弱：美联储缩减前瞻指引致政策可信度下滑，美日联合干预压制USD/JPY，中东降温削弱避险；策略：买美元看跌、做空USD/JPY熊价差及曲线陡峭化交易。

3

Aug 2026

美元/日元企稳，美国与日本买入日元引发干预猜测，上周动用950亿美元

美元/日元急挫后企稳，东京联手华盛顿约950亿美元干预支撑日元。结构性贬值压力未解，波动率或上行，建议期权对冲捕捉政策冲击。

3

Aug 2026

日本央行与美联储政策不确定性加剧，日元干预争论升温之际日本减持美国国债持仓

日银缺乏加息与指引令日元干预争议升温，利差仍主导美元/日元。日本减持美债或推升10年期收益率至4.25%上方，衍生品宜布局波动上行。

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