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6

Aug 2026

巴西维持Selic基准利率于14%不变，通胀担忧降温短期降息预期

巴西央行维持Selic利率14%符合预期，在通胀黏性与增长放缓间权衡，融资成本保持限制性并强化稳价承诺；BRL波动回落利于卖波，DI或过早计入降息。

6

Aug 2026

受霍尔木兹局势缓和协议希望提振，黄金大涨；收益率下行抵消就业数据风险

金价亚洲盘升至4,255美元，受美债收益率下行及霍尔木兹风险缓解降温通胀预期提振；警惕周五非农扰动美元。技术阻力4,400，支撑4,185/4,070。

6

Aug 2026

随着澳洲联储政策决议临近，市场对其维持利率不变的押注升温，澳元升至七周高位

澳元升破0.7050创七周新高，企稳50日EMA上方；随机指标回落。加息预期降温，市场押注8月决议按兵不动；中美数据分化与利差变动扰动后市。

6

Aug 2026

印尼市场关注印尼央行新任行长，美元兑印尼盾区间震荡，利率维持不变

印尼央行行长更迭临近，USDIDR维持17,900–18,000区间、长端收益率约7.3%。抓住低波动窗口：卖波动率+收固定，辅以深度虚值看涨期权对冲尾部风险。

6

Aug 2026

美国疲软就业数据打压美元，金银跳涨；市场关注霍尔木兹航运进展

就业降温压制美元，贵金属强势领涨：金价飙升逾4%至4247美元、银价近5%。建议布局黄金看涨、美元/日元看跌，卖出原油虚值看涨并用股指看跌对冲非农风险。

6

Aug 2026

美联储理事库克暗示利率将长期维持在高位，交易员布局应对鹰派重新定价

库克力挺FOMC按兵不动，强调通胀风险高于就业，需更多数据；若回落不足将应对。通胀黏性或促鹰派转向：建议做空2026年末SOFR，配熊市看涨价差，并买长久期美债ETF看跌期权对冲收益率上行。

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